The Troy Trojans and Georgia State Panthers will square off in a pivotal Sun Belt battle this weekend, and we’ve just got to get some action on this game. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 5 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Troy-Georgia State odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 5 bet!
Troy-Georgia State Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 5
Troy-Georgia State Betting Odds
Troy-Georgia State Pick & Prediction
After a disappointing 2022 campaign, the Georgia State Panthers are going on a revenge tour in Sun Belt play this year. They just took down Grayson McCall and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers on the road last Thursday, giving them a few extra days to prepare for Saturday’s home game against the Troy Trojans. Georgia State is an even 38-38 at home under head coach Shawn Elliott, but the market is still yet to fully correct for how much better the Panthers have looked — and how much worse their Sun Belt competition has looked.
Georgia State enters Week 5 with a massive advantage on offense. The Panthers rank 30th in yards per play (6.2) and 51st in yards allowed per play (5.2). Meanwhile, the Trojans rank a dismal 82nd in yards per play (5) and only 48th in yards allowed per play (5.1). Panthers quarterback Darren Grainger ranks 19th in passing efficiency (171) and 20th in yards per pass attempt (9.5), far ahead of Trojans quarterback Gunnar Watson, who ranks 67th (138) and 53rd (7.3). It’s worth noting that Grainger has also added 263 yards and three scores with his legs, while Watson has lost 78 with his.
Too many people forgot how good Shawn Elliott’s Panthers were before their unlucky 2022 campaign. The Panthers went 8-5 and 6-2 in conference play in 2021. They even stomped the Trojans by 27 at home. But 2022 saw them lose five one-possession games, including one to Drake Maye-led UNC, leading many to write the Panthers off this year. Georgia State reloaded with some offensive weapons in the offseason and added a new defensive coordinator in Chad Staggs, who is quite familiar with Troy from years of Sun Belt play.
I’m backing the Panthers to beat the Trojans at home. Troy’s luck has run out — the Trojans ranked third in luck factor last year, far ahead of the 129th-ranked Panthers. Georgia State’s slight rest advantage and impressive offense should yield a crucial home win. Grainger’s passing career efficiency grade ticks up from 149 to 151.5 at home, but Watson’s ticks down from 136.2 to 127.3. The Panthers are 6-3 at home against Sun Belt since Grainger took over the starting job in 2021. Look for him to keep rolling in Center Parc Stadium this Saturday.
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We locked in the Panthers at -125 on the moneyline in the early week column, but that number has since lengthened slightly to -120 (54.6%) at BetMGM and a few other spots. However, the betting models I turn to that publish after I post the early column are both in my corner — to an extent Parker Fleming’s model lists Georgia State with a win probability of 82.7%, far better than both the market odds and the 52.4% given to them by the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI). If the truth is somewhere in the middle of those numbers, we’re getting plenty of edge relative to the market price.
Troy-Georgia State Week 5 Pick: Georgia State -120 at BetMGM
OddsShopper College Football Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our best bets for Week 5. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — you can even try it out now!