Football on the West Coast looks a bit revitalized this year and this weekend, the big game in the Pac-12 features the 4-1 Utah Utes traveling to the Rose Bowl to face Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the 5-0 UCLA Bruins.
Favored by 3.5 points on the road, Utah has bounced back impressively following its Week 1 loss at Florida. The Utes should have a ton of confidence in this spot, as Utah has won the past five meetings between the two schools by an average of 27 points per game.
UCLA, however, is coming off its biggest win of the season, a 40-32 statement victory over previously undefeated Washington, and Chip Kelly has his Bruins in great form right now. If UCLA is truly a contender to win the Pac-12 and reach the College Football playoff, the Bruins will need to prove it against the Utes in what could be the first of two games this season between the two schools.
Utah vs. UCLA Predictions and Betting Picks
Even UCLA skeptics will say that this isn’t the first time the Bruins have looked great against subpar competition. When facing the best teams in the conference, however, Kelly’s squads have consistently struggled, as UCLA is just 1-5 against the spread in its last six games against teams with winning records. Isolating just home games at the Rose Bowl, the Bruins are 0-4 against the spread in its past four matchups against winning teams.
Utah coach Kyle Whittingham seems to always fly under the radar, and his Utes are now 13-3 since Cam Rising took over as the starting quarterback. One of the best offenses in the country, Utah is averaging 42 points per game despite not getting a ton of production from last season’s first-team All-Pac-12 running back Tavion Thomas. Thomas has struggled to make a difference early on in conference play, but this is a great spot for him to get going — he dominated the Bruins last year, rushing for 160 yards and four touchdowns.
Given the recent history between Utah and UCLA, it should come as no surprise that the public is backing Whittingham and the Utes in this spot. Should they be?
Is Utah a Deserving Favorite?
As of this writing Utah is currently a 3.5-point favorite in a game with a 64.5-point total. Even with the majority of bets fading the Bruins, sharp money is already coming in on UCLA as an undervalued, undefeated home underdog.
While last week’s win over Washington was definitely a step in the right direction for UCLA, Utah is big step up in competition for a Bruins team that hasn’t played anyone of significance aside from the Huskies. With a lot of points expected for both teams, UCLA’s stars will need outshine their Utah counterparts if the Bruins have any chance of pulling off the upset here.
UCLA will be relying heavily on the aforementioned Thompson-Robinson — who needs only four touchdown passes to pass Brett Hundley (75) for most in school history — and running back Zach Charbonnet — who has been a catalyst for UCLA during its eight-game win streak. In those eight games, the Michigan transfer has rushed for 757 yards and 10 touchdowns, and the Bruins are 10-0 all-time when Charbonnet runs for at least 100 yards.
Will Either Defense Show Up?
While both offenses are for real, the key to this game will be which defense can set the tone and potentially get a couple of early stops. Utah has a very well-rounded unit, with eight players recording at least 2.5 tackles for loss this season, led by linebacker Mohamoud Diabate, who has four. After giving up 29 points in that loss to Florida in Week 1, the Utes defense has given up a total of 43 points over the next four games. This will be the biggest test to date for a defense that already has seven takeaways in just two conference games.
UCLA’s defense is led by linebacker Laiatu Latu, who has four sacks and one forced fumble over his past two games. To stay in this game, UCLA’s red zone defense must improve dramatically, as the Bruins have allowed 12 scores in 13 red zone possessions this season, including five touchdowns and one field goal on six drives in Pac-12 play.
Utah vs UCLA Prediction
Given the recent history between the two schools, it makes all the sense in the world that the masses can’t wait to bet Utah on Saturday. History is history, however, and while the Bruins haven’t faced a team as good as Utah this season, the same can be said of the Utes, as UCLA has by far the best offense that they will have seen to date. Kelly will finally get it done, and not only will UCLA cover the 3.5-point spread, but the Bruins will win outright on the backs of Thompson-Robinson and Charbonnet.
Best NCAAF Bets: UCLA +3.5 & UCLA Moneyline + 145
