It might be time to shut down the Florida International football program. It’s a bad look when you lose by three touchdowns to UConn.
The Panthers are now 2-3 this season with a one-point win over FCS Bryant and a -108 point differential.
UTSA is looking like a C-USA contender again. The Roadrunners will not be ranked as they were last season, but that’s because they took two losses to two Power Five schools.
In reality, the Roadrunners are every bit as good as last season and have a Heisman candidate at quarterback in Frank Harris.
But can they cover a 33-point spread on the road in a conference game? That seems like a tall task.
Let’s dig into this matchup.
UTSA vs FIU College Football Week 6 Picks & Predictions
Frank Harris Is That Guy
Harris is third among all FBS quarterbacks in PFF’s overall offensive grades. He’s fourth in the country in passing yards. He’s managed 18 combined scores and accounted for over 75% of UTSA’s total offense.
Harris is setting UTSA record after record in electric fashion.
For a second straight week, Frank Harris set the UTSA school record for passing yards in a game.
Harris threw for 414 yards in a win over Middle Tennessee tonight, the first 400-yard passing game in Roadrunners history. He has recorded 1,724 pass yards in five games. pic.twitter.com/9t3cw4y5ex
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 1, 2022
Harris doesn’t need a great rushing game, although the Roadrunners are decent. Harris doesn’t need a good offensive line, wherein the Roadrunners are horrendous (86th in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades). He singlehandedly has made UTSA into a top-15 Passing Success Rate team.
Sadly, the defense has been getting shredded. The Roadrunners have faced plenty of good offenses but also allowed a combined 92 points to Texas State, Middle Tennessee, and Army.
Overall, UTSA is allowing 4.6 YPC while averaging less than 4.0 and allowing 6.1 YPP altogether. Harris has willed this offense to 6.5 YPP but this feels somewhat unsustainable.
Harris can only do so much. Jeff Traylor needs to re-work his defense ASAP if he wants to win the title this year.
Where Do The Panthers Go From Here?
FIU allowed UConn to run for 295 yards and three scores. Quarterback Grayson James threw two picks and, despite throwing for over 250 yards, finished with 3.9 adjusted yards per attempt.
The Panthers fell to 2-3 with that loss with one of the worst resumes in the FBS.
First-year head coach Mike MacIntyre didn’t return a lot of production. It will take a few years for this rebuild to show any type of promise. Therefore, the expectations are low and this start was not unexpected.
The one positive unit on this team is the interior pass rush. The Panthers are top-10 nationally in PFF’s Pass Rush grades. They did return five of the top eight defensive linemen including two-time All-CUSA nose tackle Davon Strickland, and this unit is formidable.
But the linebackers and the secondary are horrific.
Moreover, the offensive line needs a full rebuild. They brought in a new offensive line coach Greg Austin from UCF and Nebraska but he clearly needs more time, as the Panthers rank 122nd in Offensive Line Yards and 121st in Rush Success Rate.
The Panthers are rushing for 3.4 YPC and allowing 5.1 YPC. Yikes.
If the Panthers want to compete in this game, the key will be relying on that pass rush to out-duel a below-average offensive line and pressure Harris into mistakes. Harris has thrown five picks this season with six Turnover Worthy Plays, so he is not superhuman.
I am not so sure that happens.
UTSA vs FIU Pick
This game is going to be lightning-quick. Both UTSA and FIU rank in the top 15 in seconds per play and both drop back at a top-40 rate. There will be 100 plays in this game and the majority will be passing plays.
In the meantime, both defenses rank bottom-15 in PFF’s Tackling grades and bottom 30 in PFF’s coverage grades.
That means I’m looking towards the over.
The Panthers cannot run the ball, but hopefully, James can complete enough passes to move the ball and put up a few points. Harris will take care of the rest as I fully expect him to cook this horrendous FIU defense.
I’d be careful playing the over at a number much higher than this, however.
Best NCAAF Bet: Over 63.5 (-110) at Fox Bet Sportsbook | Bet to 64 (-110)
