After finishing the regular season 10-2, the Oklahoma Sooners take on the 9-3 Arizona Wildcats as 2.5-point favorites in a game with a 61.0-point total. Let’s dive into our Arizona-Oklahoma odds, pick and prediction for this year’s Valero Alamo Bowl. If you’re looking for more college football bets, check out our college football betting tools and our guide to betting on football.
Valero Alamo Bowl Pick: Arizona-Oklahoma Bet
Valero Alamo Bowl Odds
Odds via bet365
Arizona: -140 | Oklahoma: +120
Arizona -2.5: -110 | Oklahoma +2.5: -110
Over 61.0: -110 | Under 61.0: -110
Expert: Matt Gajewski
Time: Thursday, Dec. 28 at 9:15 p.m. ET
Arizona-Oklahoma News & Notes
Arizona Absences: OL Jordan Morgan
Arizona Coaching Changes: N/A
Oklahoma Absences: QB Dillon Gabriel, RB Marcus Major, WR Andrel Anthony, OL Tyler Guyton, OL Cayden Green, OL Savion Byrd, S Key Lawrence, S Justin Harrington, CB Kani Walker
Oklahoma Coaching Changes: OC Jeff Lebby
Arizona-Oklahoma Comparison
| Metric | Arizona | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Pace | 85th | 13th |
| Overall Offense | 7th | 19th |
| Run Blocking | 61st | 94th |
| Pass Blocking | 2nd | 48th |
| Pass Rate | 24th | 77th |
| Overall Defense | 71st | 39th |
| Run Defense | 59th | 44th |
| Pass Rush | 94th | 52nd |
| Coverage | 63rd | 55th |
Valero Alamo Bowl Pick & Prediction
An interesting bowl matchup, the rebuilt Oklahoma Sooners will take on the full strength Arizona Wildcats as one team enters the Big12 and the other departs. Arizona leveled up throughout the season, winning each of their last six games. Conversely, Oklahoma lost to Kansas and Oklahoma State after initially upsetting Texas earlier in the year.
On offense, Arizona will rely on quarterback Noah Fifita. Taking over for Jayden de Laura early in the season, Fifita finished with a 73.1% completion percentage for 8.5 yards per attempt. While his offensive line loses Jordan Morgan, this unit still projects a a strength behind their 17.3% pressure rate. Better yet, Arizona has elite skill position weapons, highlighted by Tetairoa McMillan and Jacob Cowing at receiver. The team also has two capable backs in Jonah Coleman and Michael Wiley, who combined for over 1,000 yards.
On defense, Oklahoma lost just Key Lawrence to the transfer portal among key contributors. This team still has a few injuries in the secondary, including Kani Walker and Justin Harrington, contributing to their 55th ranked coverage unit. The Oklahoma defense faded considerably down the stretch, allowing 45 points to TCU, 24 to BYU, and 27 to Oklahoma State in three of their final four games.
As Oklahoma’s offense, the Sooners lost Dillon Gabriel to Oregon, but project to start five star freshman Jackson Arnold. While inexperienced, he has a 75% completion percentage for 8.4 yards per attempt on a small sample. Oklahoma does have some concerns on this side of the ball with at least two offensive linemen out of this game. However, they still have a full stable of backs and three proven receivers in Drake Stoops, Nic Anderson, and Jalil Farooq.
On the other side, Arizona still has weaknesses on defense. While fully healthy, they rank 71st overall, 59th against the run, and 63rd in coverage. This also came against a weaker slate of opponents in the PAC12. As long as Arnold can play reasonably well, this Oklahoma offense still should find ways to score.
Valero Alamo Bowl Pick & Prediction and our Oklahoma-Arizona Bet: over 61.0 (-110) at bet365
