After James Franklin left for Penn State, the Vanderbilt Commodores have yet to fully recover. The Derek Mason era ended in the school’s first winless season ever, and Clark Lea could only get the Commodores to two wins last season. But after a 2-1 start, things are looking up in Nashville. Still, sportsbooks predict that Vanderbilt will fall to Northern Illinois — although the spread sits close to even across the college football betting market.
Led by former Ravens running back coach Thomas Hammock, Northern Illinois won its conference last season. However, key pieces have since left the team or suffered injuries, and the books may not have adjusted their NIU priors sufficiently.
Vanderbilt vs. Northern Illinois Week 3 College Football Betting Picks
Vanderbilt vs. Northern Illinois Betting Odds
Are the Commodores Still the SEC's Worst Team?
At 2-1, the Vanderbilt Commodores are just one win away from surpassing their Vegas win total. Their 53-point drubbing of Hawaii and 11-point win over FCS Elon gave fans cause for optimism heading into Week 2's home stand against Wake Forest, but Sam Hartman proved too much for Vanderbilt's defense. The Commodores allowed him to throw for 300 yards and four scores in a 20-point loss.
Still, Vanderbilt has shown more some life recently. After a winless 2020, Vanderbilt alumnus Clark Lea took this team to a 2-10 record in 2021. The 2022 recruiting class ranked 36th nationally, the program's best rank since Zach Cunningham came to town in 2013. This year's starting quarterback, Mike Wright, has thrown for 142 yards per game while adding another 88 yards per game on the ground. He has 10 touchdowns on the year, although none of those came against Wake Forest.
Vanderbilt's defense played better against Wake Forest than the final score suggests. Vanderbilt's defense made an early goal-line stand and forced five punts. One pick-six and two turnovers near the goal line gave the Demon Deacons three easy touchdowns. With Missouri suffering a 28-point blowout to Kansas State this weekend, Vanderbilt might avoid finishing last in the SEC East this year.
After 2021 MAC Championship, NIU Starting Slow
The Northern Illinois Huskies won the MAC last year, but you wouldn't know it based on their play this year. The Huskies opened their season with a narrow win over FCS Eastern Illinois, then they dropped a winnable game to the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. Tulsa entered the half with a 17-point lead. Although NIU took the lead in the fourth quarter, the defense couldn't keep Tulsa out of the end zone with less than a minute left.
NIU quarterback Rocky Lombardi has a tough task ahead of him this season. Last year's leading rusher, Jevyon Ducker, left for Memphis. Leading receiver Trayvon Rudolph suffered a non-contact knee injury and is out for the year. The Huskies have struggled without both weapons, although hometown star Cole Tucker has been a consistent bright spot at wideout.
Notably, both of NIU's contests have seen plenty of late-game scoring. In Week 1, NIU and EIU combined for 20 fourth-quarter points, 32% of the total points scored. In Week 2, NIU and Tulsa combined for 28 fourth-quarter points, 38% of the total points scored. With such a close opening spread, Saturday's matchup against Vanderbilt could come down to the wire, but NIU's defense has shown no ability to prevent its opponents from scoring in the clutch.
Vanderbilt vs. Northern Illinois Prediction
The Commodores were 1.5-point underdogs earlier in the week but have seen that number grow to 2.5. Unsurprisingly, most action has come in on NIU -- the Huskies have drawn 66% of the cash on 62% of the tickets.
Vanderbilt has shown new life under Clark Lea. The Commodores went 2-2 in non-conference play last year and scored a big road win over Colorado State. The program almost upset Missouri at home and South Carolina on the road last year. Vanderbilt outranks NIU in the Fremeau Efficiency Index ratings as well, so an upset road win feels likelier than a coin flip. Buy this line down to +100.
Best NCAAF Bet: Vanderbilt Moneyline +115 at BetMGM | Buy to +100
