Happy Friday! Tonight features a 14-game MLB slate where we are offering a four-player strikeout pitcher prop parlay. This parlay has three props at juiced odds and one very heavy favorite. After hitting our Dog Days parlay on Tuesday night with all bets at juiced odds, we’ll see if luck can strike twice with this parlay where the odds are +1299! This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 9/16
Madison Bumgarner O/U 2.5 Strikeouts| BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Leading off this strikeout prop parlay is Arizona Diamondbacks veteran left-hander Madison Bumgarner. In his third season with the Diamondbacks, Bumgarner has a 4.88 ERA and 16% strikeout rate through 28 starts. Not great statistics, but this line at 2.5 strikeouts is egregiously low. He has reached three or more strikeouts in 19 of his 28 starts and is averaging 3.75 strikeouts per game. Tonight will be Bumgarner’s fifth start against the San Diego Padres this season. During those four previous starts, he is averaging 3.5 strikeouts per game and has reached at least three strikeouts in three of those four starts. Stokastic projects Bumgarner for 3.6 strikeouts in this home matchup tonight. Despite being a sizable home underdog, this strikeout prop line is simply too low even though Bumgarner has been struggling this season. Getting to three strikeouts for a starting pitching shouldn’t be that much to ask.
Best MLB Pick Today: Madison Bumgarner OVER 2.5 Strikeouts (-182)
Lucas Giolito O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The Chicago White Sox beat the Cleveland Guardians last night and now are only three games back in the very tight AL Central division. They have won 11 of their last 15 games. The White Sox open up a new three-game series at the Detroit Tigers tonight and will send their second-best starter Lucas Giolito to the mound. Through 26 starts, Giolito has a winning record for the fourth-straight season. Despite his strikeout rate dropping during that time, it is still way above average at 25.3%. The Tigers’ offense is horrendous. They rank fourth in strikeout rate as a team and dead last in runs scored. Giolito has struggled a little bit in this matchup, allowing nine earned runs through 17.2 innings pitched. However, in those three starts against the Tigers, Giolito is averaging seven strikeouts per game and has gone over this 5.5 strikeout prop line in each start. Stokastic has Giolito projected for 5.9 strikeouts as he is a -165 road favorite. This prop is coming in at even money, which feels like incredible value.
Best MLB Pick Today: Lucas Giolito OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Adrian Houser O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
There is still a chance that the Milwaukee Brewers can make the playoffs, but they are still 1.5 games back of the San Diego Padres for the last playoff wild card spot. Right-hander Adrian Houser will draw a home matchup against the New York Yankees. Pitching to Aaron Judge is a nightmare for opposing pitchers, but outside of Judge, this Yankees offense isn’t all that great. They rank above average in strikeout rate and similar to Bumgarner, this strikeout prop line is quite low for Houser. Through 18 starts this season, Houser has a 16.2% strikeout rate. He isn’t known for being a strikeout pitcher, but he has gone over this prop in nine of his 18 starts, providing a good amount of value to this over which is sitting at +110. The Yankees don’t have much to play for, while the Brewers are playing for their playoff lives. Houser has won each of his last two starts while only allowing two earned runs through 11 innings pitched. The strikeout numbers haven’t been there, but this is a great spot for Houser to get a few more swings and misses.
Best MLB Pick Today: Adrian Houser OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Taijuan Walker O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Finally onto our last strikeout prop of the evening and that would be New York Mets starter, Taijuan Walker. He will draw a matchup against the pitiful Pittsburgh Pirates as the Mets try to stay ahead of the Atlanta Braves in the standings. Walker is coming off of his best outing of the season where he allowed one earned run in seven innings with 10 strikeouts. That was his second start this season where Walker reached double-digit strikeouts. He will need to get to six strikeouts to capture the over against the Pirates, who have the second-highest strikeout rate in the league and the second-lowest runs scored. He should have no issues breezing through this lineup. It will all come down to racking up enough strikeouts. Walker has a 19.1% strikeout rate this season but seems to be peaking at just the right time. This four-player parlay has an xWin rate of 8% with an xROI of 11%. Not too bad for having three of the four pitchers coming in at juiced odds. Let’s have a great Friday!
Best MLB Pick Today: Taijuan Walker OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)
