The West Virginia Mountaineers finally earned a non-conference win last week, defeating Towson 65-7.
The victory comes after losses to Pittsburgh and Kansas that had them sitting at 0-2 to start the year. The Mountaineers allowed 55 points in their loss to the Jayhawks, which is a bad look for head coach Neal Brown and company.
Can the Mountaineers beat a Power 5 team this week when they face off against Virginia Tech?
Blacksburg is a tough place to play. The Hokies have won back-to-back games after an embarrassing season-opening loss to Old Dominion.
It feels surprising that West Virginia is a road favorite in this spot despite beating Virginia Tech by six last year. Who has the edge in this in this rivalry game?
West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech Week 4 College Football Betting Picks
Mountaineer Defense a Nightmare
West Virginia does have a strong running game. The Mountaineers’ Standard Downs and Rushing Play advanced statistics are solid and they are working with a very experienced offensive line that returns five starters from last year. The Mountaineers use a two-running back approach in Tony Mathis and CJ Donaldson, both of whom have over 225 rush yards this season.
But how good is this rushing attack?
They posted a 51% Success Rate on Standard Downs against Kansas but only managed 3.8 yards per carry. That’s against a weak defense. The ground success that the Mountaineers had against Pitt may have been an outlier.
JT Daniels stepped up with his best game in Morgantown, tossing for 365 yards and three scores on less than 40 attempts. He did still have just one Big Time Throw compared to two Turnover Worthy Plays.
There are definitely some questions on offense, but there are absolutely no questions about their defense. This unit is terrible.
The Mountaineer linebacking core lost its top six tacklers from last year. The defense as a whole allowed 38 points to Pitt, who lost quarterback Kedon Slovis in the second half, and then 55 points to Kansas. The Jayhawks produced a whopping 6.1 yards per play against this West Virginia defense and converted 12 of their 16 third and fourth down opportunities.
The defense is getting gashed on the ground and they’re not holding their own in the red zone. Coach Brown needs to make some adjustments quickly.
Is Virginia Tech’s Defense Legit?
It’s becoming clear that Virginia Tech’s loss against Old Dominion was a fluke. Virginia Tech had a 99% post-game win expectancy in that game, per College Football Data. The Hokies followed the loss up with a solid win over Boston College and an easy 20-point win over FSC Wofford.
The Hokies returned a lot of talent on defense, including five of their starting front seven and their four top overall tacklers. So far, they’ve been lights out, ranking fifth in Success Rate allowed and eighth in both Standard Downs Success Rate allowed and Passing Downs Success Rate allowed.
The Hokies haven’t played any significant opponents yet, although Boston College’s Phil Jurkovec is a veteran presence at quarterback. Time will tell if Brent Pry has transformed this Hokies defense.
The Virginia Tech offense is an issue. Marshall transfer Grant Wells has made his fair share of big plays but continues to struggle with interceptions, with a 4:4 TD-to-INT ratio. The Hokies cannot consistently move the ball, ranking among the bottom 10 FBS teams in both Rush EPA per play and Rush Success Rate.
The offensive line is still young and inexperienced and the team is dealing with the loss of its top two runners from last season. Maybe Pry can coach up the line and get the ball moving more consistently moving forward.
West Virginia vs Virginia Tech Prediction
It’s a four-hour drive from Morgantown to Blacksburg but I don’t think we’re giving enough credit to Virginia Tech’s home-field advantage. Lane Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the ACC, yet the Hokies are 2.5-point home underdogs.
I don’t think the Hokies’ rush defense is a mirage. They allowed just 1.4 yards per carry combined to Boston College and Virginia Tech. Even if those numbers drop off slightly, I don’t see the Mountaineers moving the ball on the ground.
I also am not a believer in Daniels at quarterback. He should struggle against a Virginia Tech secondary that returned three players after finishing top-25 in Passing Play Success Rate allowed last year.
Wells is a shaky quarterback, but anyone can shred this West Virginia defense. I think the Hokies will move the ball on offense and stuff the Mountaineers on defense.
I’ve seen several projection systems making the Hokies a favorite, including Bill Connelly’s SP+ model, which has the Hokies as 1.6-point favorites.
I’m all over Virginia Tech and will be betting them all the way up to a PK.
Best NCAAF Bet: Virginia Tech +2.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook | Buy to PK (-110)
