We’re approximately a quarter of the way through the NFL season, and we’re starting to see a bit of solidity in the MVP market. There weren’t nearly the same wild swings in Week 4 as in previous weeks and a clear top group has emerged.
Still, there were a few important developments that are worth diving into.
Let’s dive into some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into NFL Week 5.
2022 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions
Riser: Patrick Mahomes +625 to +500
Nothing will do more for your MVP stock than beating the GOAT in a primetime matchup. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs had a monster offensive showing vs. the Buccaneers, who entered that game first in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA. His final numbers weren’t jaw-dropping – he finished with 249 passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception – but he made numerous plays that most other quarterbacks couldn’t even dream of.
Following that performance, Mahomes has moved to second place in the MVP betting market. He’s as low as +375 on PointsBet, but you can still grab him at +500 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
There’s now a pretty clearly defined top four in the MVP race. Josh Allen remains the favorite, but Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts are all gaining ground. A lot can change over the coming weeks – particularly in terms of health – but one of those four players is likely to take home the trophy at the end of the year.
Still, all four have seen their odds shift drastically since the start of the year, so I don’t think I’d be looking to double down on any of them at their current prices.
Recommendation: Hold
Riser: Justin Herbert +1550 to +1500
Herbert bounced back from a dreadful performance in Week 3 with a strong showing vs. the Texans. He racked up 340 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions, despite the fact that he’s still playing without his top receiver in Keenan Allen. Herbert now leads the league in passing yards and his nine touchdowns put him just two behind Mahomes, Jackson and Jared Goff.
Herbert’s odds have fallen to around +1200 across most of the industry, so +1500 on DraftKings stands out as an outlier. I think he makes a ton of sense at that salary.
Herbert is right up there statistically with the best quarterbacks in football and he plays for a very good football team. They’ve had more than their fair share of injuries to start the year, but they should start to pile up some wins. If that happens, Herbert has an outside shot to join that top group of quarterbacks in the MVP discussion.
Recommendation: Buy
Riser: Joe Burrow +3000 to +2500
Burrow and the Bengals picked up their second consecutive win in Week 4, beating a previously undefeated Dolphins squad on Thursday Night Football. That game was obviously marred by the scary injury to Tua Tagovailoa, but Burrow had an efficient night as a passer. He finished with 287 yards and two touchdowns, and he was sacked a season-low one time.
That last number is the most important. The Bengals’ offensive line remains a major question mark and Burrow took a combined 13 sacks in the two losses to start the year. As long as the line can keep Burrow upright, he should be able to take advantage of an extremely talented group of pass-catchers.
Burrow will have the opportunity to make a big statement this week. He’s taking on the Ravens in Baltimore on Sunday Night Football, so there will be plenty of eyeballs on his performance. If he can put together another strong showing in an upset win, he should see another bump up the MVP leaderboard. The Ravens have not had a good pass rush to start the year, so I like his chance of putting together a big game.
Recommendation: Buy
Faller: Aaron Rodgers +2150 to +3500
The Packers picked up their third consecutive win, and they’re tied with the Vikings atop the NFC standings. Still, things have not been pretty to start the year. They needed overtime to get past a Patriots squad that was down to their third quarterback and the passing game continues to struggle. Rodgers has already thrown three picks this season after throwing four in 16 regular season games last year. Rodgers has always shined from an efficiency standpoint, so that’s not a good sign for his MVP prospects.
The numbers aren’t there for Rodgers from a volume standpoint either. He’s averaging just 233.8 yards per game and he has just six passing touchdowns.
The Packers’ passing offense should continue to improve as the year progresses, especially with rookie Romeo Doubs taking on a larger role. That said, Rodgers seems too far behind to make a comeback in the MVP market.
Recommendation: Sell
Faller: Tom Brady +3000 to +4000
Brady is the most interesting buy-low candidate of the week. He suffered a loss last week vs. the Chiefs and he’s in the public eye right now for all the wrong reasons.
However, on the field, things have turned around for Brady. He showed signs of life in Week 3, completing nearly 74% of his passes for 271 yards, and he followed that up with 385 passing yards and three touchdowns vs. the Chiefs. That’s not all that surprising. Brady’s wide receivers and offensive line have been decimated by injuries to start the year, but they got significantly healthier heading into last week’s matchup.
With Brady’s supporting cast nearly back at full strength, the Bucs should revert to a pass-first offense that is capable of hanging plenty of points on the scoreboard. He has a great matchup in Week 5 vs. the Falcons, so don’t be surprised if Brady puts up a huge game.
Recommendation: Buy
Faller: Trevor Lawrence +4000 to +5000
I never bought the Lawrence MVP narrative, but he caught a bit of steam after the Jaguars’ upset win over the Chargers in Week 3. Those who did buy Lawrence were sadly disappointed by his performance vs. the Eagles, finishing with just 174 yards, two passing touchdowns and five turnovers.
The Jaguars are definitely better than expected this season – particularly on defense – but Lawrence was never a serious threat to win the MVP. Maybe that will change in future years, but that’s still a massive question mark. There’s no reason to consider betting on him, even at slightly better odds than last week.
Recommendation: Sell
