The Chicago Bears and Houston Texans will do battle in a thrilling Sunday Night Football matchup that pits two of the most exciting young quarterbacks against each other. We’re here to provide some NFL betting advice for this game, and if you need more, check out our guide to NFL player prop betting or anytime touchdown betting. Without further ado, let’s dive into our Bears-Texans player prop pick and anytime touchdown bet for Sunday Night Football, including a model pick for Gerald Everett!
Bears-Texans Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | SNF
Bears-Texans Player Prop Pick for Gerald Everrett
What NFL player prop betting strategy are you using this year? If you don’t have a good answer to that question, that’s fine — but think about why. And if you haven’t made money on the NFL yet, really think about why. If you blindly tailed all free bets posted here in Week 1, you went 13-4 — and picks I featured from Portfolio EV went 4-0.
Those results aren’t a bad sample. Portfolio EV is 137-88 (16.8%) on all NFL bets with an OS Rating of at least 2 so far this season. That may sound like a ton of bets, and it is — but the theme I want to emphasize is that you should place more bets for less money.
Your NFL player prop strategy (and sports betting strategy more broadly) should be about building a robust portfolio of diversified bets that win more often than they lose. To help you do so, let’s spotlight a featured play from our tools for Gerald Everett.
Everett plays alongside Cole Kmet at tight end, which can limit his volume. He was targeted just once (and tallied -1 receiving yards) in Week 1.
The under 16.5 will cost you between -110 and -125 at most books. Pinnacle has it at -119. However, we can get the under 19.5 for -125 at ESPN BET, which is a great deal.
Portfolio EV, our market-based sports betting model, says us that this Everett prop should cost -146, not -135. This is enough of a +EV bet for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to wager $18.
Again, more bets, less money. This one bet won’t change your life, but a lot of bets like it wagered over the long run might.
Viewing your sports bets as a portfolio of investments with positive expected value (+EV) instead of a series of “can’t-miss bets” can unlock a higher return on investment, one that compounding returns can bring to the moon.
Keep reading to see how you can take our tools for a spin for 15% off!
Bears-Texans Player Prop Model Pick: Gerald Everett Under 19.5 Receiving Yards -135 at ESPN BET
Bears-Texans Player Prop Pick for Caleb Williams
The No. 1 overall pick struggled in Week 1. He threw for only 93 yards (64 net yards if you take out the sacks) against the not-so-great Tennessee Titans defense. He now gets the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football. With Williams’ passing yardage prop set all the way up at 224.5 in some spots, the expectations just feel… inefficient.
The Texans weren’t perfect defensively last week. They gave up 212 passing yards to Anthony Richardson last week — and he completed only nine passes the entire day. Importantly, the Texans held Richardson to only 9-for-19 (47.3%) and 199 net yards. Houston’s defense was solid aside from a few broken plays.
Head coach DeMeco Ryans has done a ton of work to improve this defense, and the results should start revealing themselves soon. I have a ton of faith in this roster defensively, especially in the secondary, where Derek Stingley Jr. (81.8 PFF Grade in 2023) and rookie Kamari Lassiter form a dynamic duo on the boundary.
I bought Williams to stay under 224.5 for -125 yesterday. That same bet will now cost you -140 at ESPN BET. The next-best price you’ll find is the under 217.5 for -110 at FanDuel, which is a solid replacement if you didn’t take this one when I recommended via Tails by OddsShopper.
Bears-Texans Player Prop Pick: Caleb Williams Under 217.5 Passing Yards -110 at FanDuel
Bears-Texans Anytime Touchdown Bet for Sunday Night Football
If you came here hoping for a longshot, well, you’re out of luck. We’re going to keep things simple by taking a mispriced line for Joe Mixon to score a touchdown.
Mixon clocks in at odds of -125 at Fanatics to find paydirt. You’ll find this same bet priced anywhere from -130 to -182 (yes, -182) in other spots.
Pinnacle, a sharp book, has Mixon at -144 to score a touchdown. That’s a far more reasonable price for a high-volume red zone guy like Mixon.
The usage for Mixon in Week 1 was inspiring. He racked up five carries inside the 20, four inside the 10 and two inside the 5.
This Houston offense should be in the red zone early and often, and it’s clear that Ryans trusts Mixon to get the ball across the goal line. Look for Mixon to score again in Week 2.
Bears-Texans Anytime Touchdown Bet: Joe Mixon -125 at Fanatics
