The Cincinnati Bengals are looking to avenge their Week 1 overtime loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but that might prove difficult considering they are missing their top offensive weapon. The Bengals are 1-1 since losing their top WR Ja’Marr Chase to injury. The Steelers got a massive shot in the arm last week as Pro Bowl DE T.J. Watt returned to their lineup. Watt recorded two tackles and two assists against the Saints as they held New Orleans to just ten points a week ago. There is a lot more to analyze to find the sharpest Bengals-Steelers prediction, odds and pick.
NFL Odds: Bengals-Steelers Odds
Steelers: +3.5 (-110)
Bengals: -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Bengals (+155); Bengals (-180)
Over/Under: 40 (-110)
Bengals offensive weapons must step up
The Bengals’ passing offense has not been the same since losing Chase. They looked miserable against the Browns in Week 8, scoring just 13 points. They did manage to figure it out on the ground in Week 9 as Joe Mixon racked up 211 yards and five touchdowns. It will take a similar turnaround to their air attack to get the offense running on full cylinder.
In the first matchup between the Bengals and Steelers this year Chase torched Pittsburgh’s defense for 129 yards and a touchdown. Without Chase, the Bengals will look to lean on Mixon and WR Tee Higgins. Mixon was productive in their first meeting, rushing for 82 yards and adding 63 yards receiving. The Bengals have a top 10 offense according to DVOA statistics, but have been leaning more on their run game since the loss of Chase.
The Steelers defense ranks 14th in total DVOA this season. They are without a doubt better at stopping the run with Watt back in the lineup. Watt and company held Alvin Kamara and the Saints to just 29 yards on 15 carries last week.
Steeler’s star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is also returning after missing last week’s game against the Saints because of an appendectomy. His return in addition to Watt’s bodes well for the Steelers.
Can we trust Kenny Pickett?
The Steelers are 2-3 since rookie signal caller Kenny Pickett took over the helm. Two of those three losses came to the top two teams in the league, the Bills and the Eagles. Pickett and the Steelers defeated the Buccaneers and the Saints at home. Pickett will now face a tough Bengals team coming to Pittsburgh.
Overall, this offense has struggled since day one. Mitch Trubisky only lasted a couple games before head coach Mike Tomlin decided to go with the rookie. The Steelers rank 22nd in DVOA offense this year and have not scored more than 23 points all season. Pittsburgh also traded WR Chase Claypool to the Bears at the trade deadline. The Steelers are averaging just 15.6 points this year and have actually averaged fewer points since Pickett has been starting.
The Bengals’ defense rank 10th in overall DVOA this season and is averaging just 20.6 points against, good for the 13th best overall ranking in the NFL. Only twice this year have the Bengals allowed a team to score more than 24 points. This is an underrated unit that keeps getting the job done.
Weather could be a factor in this one, as well. It will be a brisk day in Pittsburgh on Sunday with temperatures sitting below freezing and winds blowing 10-20 mph all game.
Finals Bengals-Steelers Prediction & Pick:
All signs point to a tight Bengals-Steelers divisional matchup. The Steelers have not been able to move the ball effectively since Pickett has taken over, but their defense will show up on Sunday when it matters. The spread is a little too wide considering the game is being played in Pittsburgh.
The over/under has moved down from 41 and now sits at 40. I have been trying to parlay a slightly higher total and wider spread to give my bets a little extra room on the sides I like.
It’s tough to make an exact Bengals-Steelers prediction because I don’t see a way for the Bengals to run away with this game. On the other hand, Pickett has not instilled much confidence either. The Steelers plus the points and the under feel like the right side in this one. My Bengals-Steelers pick is to parlay the Steelers +7.5 with the under of 45.5 points which will come out to a +110 ticket.
Final Bengals-Steelers Pick: Parlay the Steelers +7.5 and Under 45.5 (+110)
