The first-place Minnesota Vikings host the Dallas Cowboys this Sunday in Minneapolis. Dallas opened as a 2.5-point favorite before being bet down to 1.5, which is where the line currently sits. As of Saturday morning, 38% of the tickets and 51% of the handle are on the Cowboys. One strategy to bet this game includes a Dalvin Cook rushing + receiving yards prop. Let’s dive further into the Cowboys-Vikings matchup to make the best prediction and pick. For more best bets or to compare the best NFL odds, be sure to check out our OddsShopper tool.
NFL Odds: Cowboys-Vikings Odds
Vikings: +1.5 (-110)
Cowboys: -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Vikings (+100); Cowboys (-120)
Over/under: 48.5 (-110)
Dallas defense can’t stop the run
The Cowboys (6-3) have a big problem defensively and cannot stop opposing running backs. Entering this week, they rank fourth-last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game.
Their poor defensive play was predictable before the season started due to the weak personnel, outside of Micah Parsons and Demarus Lawrence. The latter is questionable for Sunday with a foot injury. Entering the season, Pro Football Focus ranked the Cowboys defensive line and secondary 21st in the league.
This defense has been specifically susceptible to running backs. It allowed 80+ rushing and receiving yards to Leonard Fournette in Week 1, Joe. Mixon in Week 2, Saquon Barkley in Week 3, Jamaal Williams in Week 7, Khalil Herbert in Week 8 and Aaron Jones in Week 10. That’s a litany of backs that have taken the Cowboys defense to task.
Their run defense has seemingly gotten worse as the season has progressed, while running backs with the ability to catch out of the backfield have feasted against the Cowboys. Based on the personnel they’re currently stuck with, there shouldn’t be much optimism in Dallas to turn it around.
Cook doesn’t get the attention he deserves
While almost all of the attention on the Vikings (8-1) goes toward Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook continues to cement himself as one of the league’s best running backs.
Cook’s rushing + receiving yards prop sits at 79.5, which is too low. In his last game, he combined for 146 rushing and receiving yards against the Buffalo Bills, which is one of the best defenses in football. Two weeks prior, Cook combined for 141 rushing and receiving yards against the Arizona Cardinals. In fact, Cook has gone over this total in seven of his nine games this season.
Through three career appearances against the Cowboys, Cook has combined for 80 rushing + receiving yards twice and missed it by just two yards the one time he did not go over this number. Despite the media fawning over Justin Jefferson every week, there is no denying that Cook is an elite weapon on offense and should be able to feast on a weak Cowboys run defense.
Final Cowboys-Vikings Prediction & Pick
Dallas has gotten killed by running backs in each of their last three games, and that should not change in this matchup. Cook’s rushing + receiving total is too low at 79.5 yards with the way he can beat defenses both on the ground and through the air. The Cowboys-Vikings prediction shouldn’t change here. The best pick is to stick with the trends and back the Vikings’ running back to get over this number for the eighth time in 10 games this season.
Final Cowboys-Vikings Pick: Dalvin Cook Over 79.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-125, DraftKings)
