The Cincinnati Bengals will head south to Nashville for a date with the Tennessee Titans in Week 12. The Bengals won’t have star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase for the contest, but his status hasn’t moved the spread — Cincinnati remains a 1.5-point favorite in the NFL odds. Bettors looking for a positive return from Sunday’s action should tail these Bengals-Titans prediction and pick.
NFL Odds: Bengals-Titans Odds
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Cincinnati Favored Without Mixon, Chase
The Cincinnati Bengals haven’t looked as good as they did last year. At 6-4, they trail the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North and are currently the seventh seed. While they rank a respectable 10th in total defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), that’s only good enough for fifth in the AFC.
After a rocky start, Cincinnati’s offense has found its footing. The Bengals rank eighth in offensive DVOA, and their passing offense ranks an impressive fourth in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.18). They have shifted away from the run and pass 62.5% of the time, the NFL’s ninth-highest rate. With running back Joe Mixon sidelined, it’s safe to expect a heavy of Joe Burrow on Sunday.
Cincinnati’s defense has looked solid this year as well. The Bengals rank a reasonable 13th in defensive DVOA and 13th in yards allowed per play (5.3). That said, they haven’t fared especially well against the run. Opposing teams have gashed the Bengals for 4.4 yards per rush attempt, which ranks only 14th, and 117.1 yards per game, which ranks 18th. Cincinnati’s defense ranks only 24th in EPA per play against the run (-0.01).
The Bengals’ struggles against the run have cost them lately. They played a close game against the Steelers in which Najee Harris scampered for 90 yards and two scores. Nick Chubb battered them for 101 yards and two scores on Halloween. Poor defensive line play accounts for their struggles — the Bengals rank a lowly 20th in defensive line yards and 31st in run-stop win rate.
Tennessee Getting Enough from Henry
At 7-3, the AFC South belongs to the Tennessee Titans. The next-closest team to them in the standings, the Indianapolis Colts, fired their coach midway through the season. The Jacksonville Jaguars sit a full four games behind them, and the Houston Texas are competing for the first overall pick. The Titans rank a reasonable 12th in total DVOA.
Tennessee’s offense has struggled at points, but it also had to play without Ryan Tannehill twice. The Titans rank only 18th in offensive DVOA. Their passing attack ranks 14th in EPA per play (0.06) while their rushing attack ranks only 25th (-0.08). But despite these middling advanced metrics, Derrick Henry leads the NFL in rushing yards per game (101) and ranks third in rushing touchdowns per game (1).
The Titans have given Henry just enough support for him to succeed. They rank seventh in offensive line yards and 11th in run-block win rate. The line should get a boost with the return of center Ben Jones as well. Jones owns an impressive PFF grade of 73. The passing offense has taken some pressure off him as well, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill ranks a solid seventh in net yards per pass attempt (NY/A) with 6.81.
Tennessee’s defense has accounted for more of the team’s success. They rank ninth in defensive DVOA and 15th in yards allowed per play (5.4). Their defensive front ranks second in EPA per rush attempt (-0.17) and leads the NFL in line yards. The passing defense has been a bit more suspect, but it still ranks 12th in EPA per play (0.04). The pass rush ranks 11th in pressure percentage (23.5%) and will benefit from the return of Bud Dupree.
Final Bengals-Titans Prediction & Pick
This game features a tight 1.5-point spread and a low total of just 42.5. The books likely expect a low-scoring game because of Tennessee’s slow, run-heavy offense. The Titans rank 32nd in seconds per play (31.5), after all, and the Bengals aren’t far behind in 24th (29.9). However, the Titans pick up the pace slightly in Nashville — they rank 27th in seconds per play when playing at home (30.5). They have also scored 20 points per game in Nissan Stadium.
Despite their average defense, the Bengals have given up plenty of points, especially lately. The Bengals rank 15th in points allowed per game (21.5) but are tied for 28th over the last three games (27.7). They have also allowed 23.2 points per game on the road, which ranks 18th. Backing the Titans to score at least 21 points, which they have done in half of Ryan Tannehill‘s starts this year, feels sharp given Cincinnati’s recent defensive struggles.
Final Bengals-Titans Pick: Titans Team Total Over 20.5 (-108 for 1.08 Units) at FanDuel
Bengals-Titans OddsShopper Model Prediction
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