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Best Bets for Super Bowl 58: Are Our Experts Backing the Chiefs or 49ers? (February 11)

If you’re excited about Super Bowl 58, so is our staff — we’ve all got picks out for the big game! Let’s dive into what our experts expect to happen in Sunday’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers as we dive into their best Super Bowl 58 bets. Take a look at OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!

Best Bets for Super Bowl 58 | Chiefs vs. 49ers

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Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl 58 Odds

Odds via BetMGM
Chiefs: +110 | 49ers: -130
Chiefs +2: +100 | 49ers -2: -130
Over 47.5: -110 | Under 47.5: -110
Time: Sunday, Feb. 10 at 6:30 p.m. ET

Super Bowl 58 Odds Analysis

The San Francisco 49ers have been the Super Bowl betting favorites for months now, but if you’re paying attention to the media, you know that the Kansas City Chiefs are favorites for everyone else.

The spread for this game opened at 2.5 before ticking down to 2. Pregame reports that 74% of the tickets and 76% of the cash have come in on Kansas City to cover. VSiN, which indexes bets placed at DraftKings Sportsbook, reports 63% of the tickets and 65% of the handle is on the Chiefs to cover.

But as far as the moneyline goes, the splits slant in another direction. Pregame reports that the 49ers have attracted 55% of the cash on only 46% of the tickets. VSiN reports that the 49ers have drawn 39% of the cash on just 26% of the tickets. The 49ers have drawn sharp action to win this one outright, and, if you factor the “Drake Curse” into your analysis, the Canadian rapper wagered $1.15 million on the Chiefs.

Best Bets for Super Bowl 58 | OddsShopper’s Staff Picks

Ben Rasa: Isiah Pacheco O/U 15.5 Rushing Attempts

Rushing attempts isn’t the most well-known player prop category, but it’s a spot worth attacking in this matchup. One of the key reasons for the Chiefs’ postseason run been Pacheco’s success on the ground.

In the three playoff games for Kansas City, he has tallied 24, 15 and 24 carries, and it seems that regardless of the game script, they want to give him opportunities to wear down defenses.

With a close, competitive spread, I see Pacheco once again having 20-plus carry upside on the ground — and at -122, I’m willing to back the over in this spot.

Best Super Bowl 58 Bet: Isiah Pacheco Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts -122 at FanDuel

Isaiah Sirois: 49ers ML

I’m a hater. I picked the San Francisco 49ers to win shortly after the matchup was set, and I’m sticking to my guns. Everyone loves to talk about how good the Kansas City Chiefs are at defending the pass — that was on full display in their AFC Championship Game win over the Baltimore Ravens — but no one talks about their struggles versus the run.

The 49ers just got served a great reminder to not pivot away from their running game; the Chiefs probably wouldn’t be here if Baltimore hadn’t done so. San Francisco’s rushing offense led the NFL with +0.04 expected points added (EPA) per play in the regular season while the Chiefs’ defense ranked 28th (-0.03 EPA allowed per play). The unit has even regressed in the postseason (+0.04).

Using EPA to support a run-heavy game plan is counterintuitive, given the relative lack of value in keeping the ball on the ground compared to airing it out, but what’s lost in that analysis is the ability to keep an opposing offense off the field. The 49ers rank 32nd in seconds per play and seventh in time of possession. If they can keep Mahomes off the field, they will win this game.

Best Super Bowl 58 Bet: 49ers Moneyline -122 at DraftKings

Our staff's best Super Bowl 58 bets include a pick for Isiah Pacheco as well as several other 49ers-Chiefs bets, including...

OddsShopper’s Premium tools have identified this Isiah Pacheco under as a +EV bet for Super Bowl 58 because of a wide odds disparity between Caesars Sportsbook and the rest of the market. For the rest of the model’s picks, subscribe today!

Nathan Joyce: 49ers O/U 1.5 Team Sacks

We call Patrick Mahomes the best quarterback in the NFL, but we might have to start calling him the best escape artist, too.

If there’s one thing — well, one of a long list of things — Mahomes is great at, avoiding sacks has to be up there. In 96 career games, he has a 4% sack rate. And in the playoffs against many of the leagues’ best defenses? A mere 5% sack rate.

In fact, he has been sacked only five times on 223 dropbacks since losing to the Bengals in the AFC Championship game in 2022.

The San Francisco 49ers blitz at one of the lowest rates in the NFL, and they prefer to sit back in a somewhat vanilla zone coverage. Yes, the 49ers have plenty of name recognition on their defensive line, but I’m not convinced they’ll be able to bring enough heat to bring down Mahomes multiple times by only rushing four.

Best Super Bowl 58 Bet: 49ers Under 1.5 Team Sacks +130 at DraftKings

Eytan Shander: Chiefs O/U 7.5 Players to Record a Reception

Patrick Mahomes is going to have options. The Chiefs will be able to run on the 49ers with Isiah Pacheco. Jerick McKinnon is a game-time decision, meaning we should expect even more creativity from the superstar quarterback.

The Chiefs’ offense will pepper both Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice but expect both Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (and McKinnon, if he’s active) to be involved in the passing game.

While Kelce steals the show, the Chiefs often throw to another tight end, Noah Gray. That’s plenty of names already. With Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson and Mecole Hardman all expected to be active, all Mahomes must do is connect with a few of them once to cash the over.

Best Super Bowl 58 Bet: Chiefs Over 7.5 Players to Record a Reception -106 at FanDuel

Nolan Kelly: 49ers -2

The 49ers are going to run the ball down the Chiefs’ throats, and the Chiefs’ defense won’t be able to stop them from doing so.

San Francisco runs a bunch of 21 and 22-personnel groupings. The Chiefs usually counter those looks with their base defense and rank a dismal 29th in EPA allowed per play when they do so.

Meanwhile, San Francisco leads the NFL in yards per carry gained on zone runs, and Kansas City ranks 31st in yards per carried allowed to zone runs. The 49ers also run a bunch under center, and the Chiefs rank 25th in yards per carry allowed versus those looks.

Best Super Bowl 58 Bet: 49ers -2 -108 at DraftKings

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Isaiah Sirois


Isaiah Sirois

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