The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins enter their Week 2 meeting with matching 2-0 records. The Bills stomped the defending Super Bowl champions in Week 1 and blew out the Bills in Week 2. In contrast, the Dolphins scored a somewhat close win over the Patriots and rallied late against the Ravens for a pivotal fourth-quarter comeback. The sportsbooks still predict the Bills will beat the Dolphins, but quarterback Tua Tagovailoa might have something to say about that.
Tagovailoa, the fifth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, had seen his stock decline over the last two years. Sixth overall pick Justin Herbert‘s performance made it all the easier for analysts to label Tagovailoa a disappointment. With a receiving corps loaded with talent, this is a prove-it year for Tagovailoa — and he has shown flashes of greatness thus far. The player prop markets favor Tagovailoa to toss for at least 250 yards and two scores against Buffalo.
Bills vs. Dolphins Week 3 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Bills vs. Dolphins Betting Odds
Bills Entering Week 3 Banged Up
Who can beat the Buffalo Bills? After two weeks, it looks like nobody. The Bills have scored eight touchdowns but allowed only two. Quarterback Josh Allen has completed 75.4% of his passes for seven scores and 8.4 net yards per attempt (NY/A). Although he has thrown a pair of interceptions and taken three sacks, he lost only nine yards on the sacks, and none of his mistakes turned the tide against the Bills.
Allen's success stems from his successful development and solid offensive line play. His current completion percentage sits well above his career average (62.7%) and his career-best performance in 2020 (69.2%). The addition of talented wideout Stefon Diggs may have helped, but Allen deserves credit for improved decision-making and honed accuracy. The offensive line deserves credit as well. Allen has faced pressure on just 9% of his dropbacks, and the Bills rank eighth in adjusted sack rate. That said, Allen may face an extra challenge in Week 3 with Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox banged up.
Buffalo's defense has been elite this season, but injuries may start to take their toll soon. Star cornerback Tre'Davious White is yet to return from a torn ACL suffered last year. However, the Bills have surrendered only 3.6 yards per play without him, an NFL-low. The defense held Derrick Henry to only 25 yards rushing on 1.92 yards per carry (YPC) just last week and ranks first in adjusted line yards. However, Buffalo's lengthy Week 3 injury report includes key pieces of the defensive line and secondary. Defensive tackles Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips will sit out, and Tim Settle is also questionable. Likewise, defensive backs Micah Hyde and Dane Jackson will sit out, and Jordan Poyer is also questionable. Those key absences could doom Buffalo's defense against Miami.
Dolphins Offense Looks Explosive
The Miami Dolphins boast an impressive, high-powered offense under new head coach Mike McDaniel. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa currently leads the NFL in total passing yards. He has completed 71.1% of his passes for seven scores and 8.08 NY/A. He has taken four sacks for a net loss of 36 and thrown two interceptions. Dolphins wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle rank first and third in yards receiving, respectively. Tagovailoa, often criticized for a lack of arm strength, is averaging the same intended air yards per pass attempt as Josh Allen (7.3).
Tagovailoa has succeed in spite of questionable offensive line play. The Dolphins entered the year ranked 23rd in the trenches by PFF, and their skepticism has been warranted thus far. Tagovailoa has faced pressure on 26.4% of his dropbacks. While the Dolphins rank ninth in adjusted sack rate, that number could regress over time. Miami's blockers rank 25th in adjusted line yards and their rushers have gotten only 2 yards before contact per play. With star left tackle Terron Armstead questionable after failing to practice all week and right tackle Austin Jackson already on injured reserve, things could get ugly in the trenches.
Defense has been somewhat of an issue for Miami. McDaniel opted to retain last year's defensive coordinator, Josh Boyer, to mixed results. The Dolphins rank fifth in adjusted line yards but 28th in adjusted sack rate. The lack of pressure has allowed Miami's opponents to average an NFL-high 6.9 yards per play and an NFL-high 8.7 yards per pass attempt. Splash plays by Kendrick Bourne and Rashod Bateman skew those numbers, but Allen is capable of making similar plays with his receivers. Things might get worse for Miami if star cornerback Xavien Howard can't play through his questionable tag.
Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction
The Dolphins will benefit from Buffalo's defensive injuries. Tua Tagovailoa will face less pressure with both Phillips and Oliver sidelined -- the duo had already combined for five quarterback hits this year, 1.5 of which were sacks. He'll also benefit from worse pass coverage with Hyde, Jackson and White all sidelined. The Bills have only allowed 298 passing yards all season, but Tagovailoa should exploit the injury-riddled unit on Sunday afternoon.
Instead of targeting an individual receiver to get the best cornerback matchup, Tagovailoa's passing yardage prop offers considerable value. Books have had to adjust the number following the news coming out of Buffalo, and some have made better adjustments than others. As of Friday afternoon, the total for this prop varied from 253.5 to 262.5. Bettors should target any number under 260.
Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction: Tua Tagovailoa Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel | Buy to 259.5
Bills vs. Dolphins OddsShopper Model Prediction
OddsShopper's industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props -- and even quarter- or half-based derivatives! Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model's predictions and best bets for each game. For the Week 3 matchup between the Bills and Dolphins, the model has identified a different Tagovailoa player prop as a line to buy at its current price.
Betting the over on Tua Tagovailoa's interceptions prop yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to BetMGM for the best price on the market!
