Few expected the New York Jets to start the year with a 1-1 record. Even fewer expected the Cincinnati Bengals to start off at 0-2. But that’s exactly where these teams stand after Week 2 — their opening performances should remind bettors just how unpredictable the NFL can get. That said, Cincinnati’s poor two-game stretch hasn’t deterred the sportsbooks from predicting the Bengals will handily beat the Jets at MetLife Stadium.
The defending AFC Champions haven’t recaptured last year’s magic. Quarterback Joe Burrow was able to deliver accurate passes despite serious pressure, but he hasn’t been able to do so this season. Time will tell if he can turn things around — or if the Bengals’ rebuilt offensive line can right the ship.
Bengals vs. Jets Week 3 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Bengals vs. Jets Betting Odds
Bengals Offensive Line Struggles Continue
The Cincinnati Bengals rebuilt their offensive line in the offseason. The unit had just finished 31st in adjusted sack rate after allowing 55 sacks in the regular season and another 19 in the playoffs. In came right tackle La'el Collins, right guard Alex Cappa and center Ted Karras. Yet two weeks into the 2022 season, Burrow has already taken an NFL-high 13 sacks, and the Bengals remain 31st in adjusted sack rate. Most of the problems have come on Burrow's blindside -- left tackle Jonah Williams and left guard Cordell Volson own PFF grades below 60 and have given up five total sacks. Collins hasn't played well, either, but at least he may be able to cite a back injury for his woes. He failed to practice all week and is questionable heading into Sunday's contest.
The offensive line struggles have affected the rest of the offense. Joe Burrow has completed 64% of his passes, well below the NFL-leading 70.4% he completed last year, for three scores and only 4.55 net yards per attempt (NY/A). Burrow has taken 13 sacks and thrown four picks already. Joe Mixon has averaged just 3 yards per carry (YPC), well below the 4.1 he averaged last year, in part because the offensive line has generated only 2.2 yards before contact.
The defense has at least looked much better than the offense. The Steelers recorded only 13 first downs and 267 total yards in their Week 1 win. Likewise, the Cowboys got only 19 first downs in Week 2, although their 337 total yards were much less encouraging. Still, the Bengals rank third in fewest third-down conversions allowed per game (3.5) and 11th in yards allowed per play (5.0). Cincinnati's defensive front has allowed the third-fewest adjusted line yards but also generated the fourth-lowest adjusted sack rate.
Jets Far Outperforming Expectations
The New York Jets have looked remarkably solid with Joe Flacco under center. They followed a blowout Week 1 loss to the Ravens with a dramatic comeback win over the Browns. Flacco has completed 61.2% of his passes for five touchdowns and 5.45 NY/A. He has taken five sacks but thrown only one interception. He currently leads the NFL in both passing attempts and completions. Flacco's steady presence and big arm have given new life to veteran wideout Corey Davis, who ranks 14th in receiving yardage, and should help young receivers Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore develop.
Flacco has done his best despite pressure behind an injury-riddled offensive line. New York lost tackles Mekhi Becton and Duane Brown to injuries before the season began, and opposing teams have pressured Flacco on 22.8% of his dropbacks. That said, the line ranks a respectable 14th in adjusted sack rate and 16th in adjusted line yards. Running backs Breece Hall and Michael Carter Jr. are averaging 4.3 and 3.5 yards before contact, respectively.
That said, the defense isn't great. The Jets rank 25th in third-down conversions allowed per game (6.5) and 20th in yards allowed per play (5.8). New York owns only three sacks this season and ranks 22nd in adjusted sack rate. Lamar Jackson exploited the Jets for multiple huge passing plays, and the Cleveland backfield did the same with multiple big rushing plays. Head coach Robert Saleh has this team headed in the right direction, but New York lacks the defensive talent needed to truly contend.
Bengals vs. Jets Prediction
The Bengals likely won't have right tackle La'el Collins on Sunday, and that renders their offensive line all the more vulnerable to an opportunistic Jets defense. Robert Saleh and the Jets scored a memorable upset win over the Bengals last year behind quarterback Mike White, so even though the books heavily favor Cincinnati, this game should stay relatively close.
Still, New York has been vulnerable to big plays, and Joe Burrow could connect with Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins for a few deep passes. That said, chunk plays don't always generate touchdowns. The Bengals have often driven downfield but have scored only three touchdowns this season. Negative plays have often derailed Cincinnati's drives -- three of their seven field goal attempts came less than three plays after a sack. Of Cincinnati's 37 total points, 18 have come via field goal, giving kicker Evan McPherson 9 points per game. His total against the Jets sits at 7.5. Back the Over and hope the Jets can force two or three big stops in their own territory.
Bengals vs. Jets Prediction: Evan McPherson Over 7.5 Kicking Points (+106) at Caesars
Bengals vs. Jets OddsShopper Model Prediction
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