The 2-1 Denver Broncos and the 0-3 Las Vegas Raiders square off in an NFL Week 4 division rivalry.
The Raiders are the only remaining winless team in the NFL and the Broncos are struggling to score points, averaging just 14.2 per game.
That being said, the Broncos are moving the ball as their 348 total yards is middle of the pack. They just aren’t finishing when it counts.
Russell Wilson has only completed 59% of his passes which ranks 27th, which is not a great start for the second highest paid quarterback in the NFL. Not to mention, Wilson has plenty of offensive weapons including Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Javonte Williams. It doesn’t help that the trio have contributed to seven dropped passes, some that should have been touchdowns.
On the other side, the Raiders added Davante Adams, but it certainly hasn’t helped them win any games Derek Carr‘s 60.8% completion rate is his worst since his rookie year. The offense hopes Hunter Renfrow can return this week from a concussion but he remains questionable and a game-time decision. Regardless of the injury, new Raiders’ head coach Josh McDaniels doesn’t seem to be leading this group in the right direction.
The Broncos are 1-2 ATS and have hit the under in all of their games. Las Vegas is 0-3 ATS and have hit the under in two of three games. The books have the Raiders favored by 2 points with a total of 45. Let’s dive in and get to my best bets!
Broncos vs. Raiders Week 2 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Broncos Offense Gets Rollin’
The Broncos have been hard to watch. There have been plenty of bad jokes and pictures of hot dogs in cereal used to describe Russell Wilson‘s “cooking.”
Well, Russ and the rest of the offense may have a better kitchen this week against a Raiders defense that has allowed 267 passing yards and 25 points a game which rank 25th in the NFL. The Raiders have only managed two sacks in three games despite the addition of pro-bowl defensive-end Chandler Jones..
Those sack numbers are worst in the NFL. Russell Wilson has been sacked nine times and his two touchdown passes are last in the league, tied with only Justin Fields. Russ has thrown the ball downfield often but he has not connected. Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton are a combined 3-for-9 in targets over 20 yards.
The Raiders allowed the Titans to put up a 50% 3rd down conversation rate and allowed Ryan Tannehill to finish the game at nine yards per pass. Javonte Williams ranks 14th in yards per attempt on the ground while his 20 targets is third nest for running backs. Melvin Gordon is a solid change of pace guy, but his three fumbles leads all running backs.
The Broncos should have an easier time against the Raiders than they did vs the 49ers stout defense. This offense has the talent but has continued to be their own worst enemy. If they can hold onto the ball there is a good chance they score big this week.
Derek Carr Needs to Settle Down
The Raiders have a ton of weapons on offense, especially with the emergence of Mack Hollins in replace of Hunter Renfrow. Hollins has caught 13 of his 16 targets for 224 receiving yards which is third best in the NFL over the last two weeks. Davante Adams has been solid, with three touchdowns, but he’s only caught 56% of his targets on the year.
Derek Carr is forcing the ball when he doesn’t need too. The Broncos defense is allowing 170 passing yards per game which is third best in the NFL. However, It’s not a great sample because the quarterbacks they have faced were Geno Smith, Davis Mills and a combo of Trey Lance and Jimmy G. Carr has been bad, but he’s a better passer than those three guys. It isn’t worth reading too much into those Broncos’ defensive stats.
Running back Josh Jacobs is averaging 4.6 yards per attempt on the ground, which is the best of his career. He has not scored yet and he did fumble once, but the Raiders need to get him the ball more and go with a more balanced attack to open things up for Carr. Rashaad Penny, Damion Pierce, and Jeff Wilson all had over 60 yards on less than 15 carries against the Broncos. If the Raiders can get Jacobs going, they should be able to put up some points against the Broncos this week.
Broncos vs. Raiders Prediction
These teams met twice last year and obviously had a ton of different personnel but the Broncos defense was probably better than it is now. Last December the Raiders beat the Broncos 17-13 in a low scoring affair while Jacobs was the star of the game rushing for 129 yards.
There are a few bets I like including Josh Jacobs over 60.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel) and Over 45 game total. However, my favorite bet is a receiving prop for a running back. The Raiders have allowed 8, 7, and 6 receptions to the running back position over the last three games. Javonte Williams is second on the Broncos with 21 targets and has 14 receptions in three games. The pace moves quicker in this one and we see more offense from the Broncos. PointsBet is offering +124 odds on the Williams receiving prop of 3.5. I’ll gladly take the over at plus odds.
NFL Best Bet: Javonte Williams Over 3.5 receptions (+125, PointsBet)
