The Los Angeles Chargers have taken a beating on the injury front this year, but it didn’t keep them from handling the Houston Texans last week. Los Angeles entered the half with a 20-point lead, and even though Houston closed it to just a field goal in the fourth quarter, the Chargers completed a six-minute touchdown drive to score some insurance points just before the two-minute warning. This week, sportsbooks predict the Chargers will beat the Cleveland Browns by just under a field goal.
The spread seems a bit unfair to the home team. Though the Browns haven’t looked like world-beaters, they are tied for the lead in the AFC North and rank 12th in total defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). Their run-first offense isn’t sexy, but it has been efficient, and the Browns would be undefeated but for two late-game defensive collapses.
Chargers vs. Browns Week 5 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Chargers vs. Browns Betting Odds
Los Angeles Lacks a Ground Game
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has been playing through a painful rib injury. Lead wide receiver Keenan Allen remains out with a hamstring injury. Star left tackle Rashawn Slater is out for most of the year with a biceps injury. The team's big free agent signing at cornerback, J.C. Jackson, has struggled after returning from ankle surgery. Yet the Chargers are a respectable 2-2 and rank 10th in total DVOA. Although most no longer see them as a contender to win the AFC West, they should compete for a Wild Card berth at worst.
Los Angeles boasts an impressive passing attack but hasn't done much on the ground. Herbert has completed 66.9% of his throws for nine touchdowns and 7.23 net yards per attempt (NY/A), putting him on track for career highs in all three categories. Herbert currently leads the NFL in passing yards as well. That said, he has had to step up for an impotent rushing attack -- the Chargers average an NFL-low 2.7 yards per rush attempt. Running back Austin Ekeler ranks last among running backs with at least 32 carries in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR). Backups Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel have also struggled to generate yards. However, the backs aren't the only ones to blame: They have gotten an abysmal 1.3 yards before contact per attempt (YBC/A) from the offensive line.
The Chargers invested heavily in their defense this offseason, but only some of those investments are working out. The unit ranks a solid 11th in defensive DVOA but 23rd in yards allowed per play (5.9). The Chargers have given up the second-most yards per rush attempt (5.4) despite ranking 15th in adjusted line yards and sixth in team run-stop win rate. Those struggles stem from poor tackling beyond the line of scrimmage, as the Chargers rank 20th in second-level yardage allowed and 32nd in open-field yardage allowed. The pass rush ranks 10th in adjusted sack rate, and big-name addition Khalil Mack already has an impressive five sacks. However, the cornerbacks all own PFF grades of 65 or below, including Jackson, whose grade sits at a dismal 39.3.
Cleveland Running Well, Defending Poorly
For better or worse, the Browns have relied on their rushing attack, ranking fourth in rushing play percentage (53%). Running back Nick Chubb ranks second in scrimmage yards and Kareem Hunt ranks 49th. Cleveland wide receivers Amari Cooper and David Njoku rank 70th and 88th. Chubb leads the NFL in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) and Hunt ranks 14th.
Cleveland's focus on the running game has left them without an effective two-minute offense. QB Jacoby Brissett has gotten the ball in the fourth quarter with Cleveland down by a score three times this year, and the Browns are 1-2 in those situations. Brissett threw game-ending interceptions against the New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons on needlessly aggressive throws. His game-winning drive against Carolina consisted of 15 penalty yards, 20 net passing yards and a 58-yard field goal. Brissett has thrown for 5.98 in NY/A, which ranks 20th, and he ranks 21st in on-target pass percentage.
The defense deserves most of the blame for Cleveland's two losses and the near loss to Carolina. Cleveland led by nine against Carolina, 13 against New York, and three against Atlanta before the unit allowed consecutive scoring drives in each game. Chunk passing plays accounted for most of these failures: a 75-yard touchdown to Robbie Anderson, a 66-yard touchdown to Corey Davis, and a 42-yard bomb to Olamide Zaccheaus set up the game-winning scores. All three came against undisciplined zone coverage schemes.
Chargers vs. Browns Prediction
Cleveland should again lean on the ground game against Los Angeles. The Chargers defense should give up enough chunk runs for the Browns to frequently have the ball in scoring range, but the unit has enough talent to stop the Browns once they get there. Further, Brissett has completed an NFL-low 35% of his passes inside the 20-yard line, so the Browns won't be able to turn to him for easy scores.
As a result, the Browns should attempt quite a few field goals Sunday. Cleveland ranks 12th in field goal attempts per game (2), and Los Angeles ranks 21st in field goal attempts allowed per game (2.3). With Browns rookie Cade York a perfect 8-for-8 in field goal attempts and 9-for-11 in extra-point attempts, he is well-positioned to hit the over on his kicking prop.
Chargers vs. Browns Prediction: Cade York Over 6.5 Kicking Points (-105, DraftKings)
Chargers vs. Browns OddsShopper Model Prediction
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