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Chiefs-49ers Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet for Super Bowl 58 (February 11)

The Big Game has arrived. The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will do battle in Super Bowl 58. Will Brock Purdy cement his status as a franchise quarterback, or will Travis Kelce condemn us to an offseason full of Swelce content by winning another ring? Let’s dive into the best Chiefs-49ers player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Sunday, including a pick for Brock Purdy. Take a look at OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!

Chiefs-49ers Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Super Bowl 58

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Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl 58 Odds

Odds via BetMGM
Chiefs: +110 | 49ers: -130
Chiefs +2: +100 | 49ers -2: -130
Over 47.5: -110 | Under 47.5: -110
Time: Sunday, Feb. 10 at 6:30 p.m. ET

Chiefs-49ers Player Prop Pick

Christian McCaffrey O/U 89.5 Rushing Yards

I posted this Christian McCaffrey player prop pick earlier in the week, but it’s worth revisiting because it’s my top prop on the board for an offensive player (this Chris Jones player prop is my favorite on the board).

This pick comes down to what the San Francisco 49ers should do, which is run the ball all over a bad Kansas City Chiefs defensive front. That’s what the Baltimore Ravens should’ve done two weeks ago, too.

Kansas City’s defensive front has seriously underperformed this season. The Chiefs ranked 25th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.5) and 32nd in run-stop win rate (27%) this season. Their poor rushing defense has often been obscured by their offense’s ability to take an early lead, leading opposing offenses to throw at a high clip.

The Chiefs will get nose tackle Mike Pennel from the practice squad for this one, but Pennel has a 30.4 PFF grade over 45 defensive snaps this season. Pennel joins the likes of Neil Farrell Jr. (65.3), Mike Danna (67), and George Karlaftis (64) in a defensive front that’s thoroughly unimpressive versus the run. Chris Jones (84.1) is the only good all-around player on the unit, which is why he gets double-teamed at a league-high 72% rate.

Meanwhile, McCaffrey has run wild in games that Brock Purdy starts. Dating back to his arrival in San Francisco, McCaffrey averaged 90.4 rushing yards per regular-season game with Purdy under center and 85.2 per game in the postseason. He eclipsed the 90-yard mark in nine of 16 regular-season games this year and in both playoff starts as well.

Chiefs-49ers Player Prop Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 89.5 Rushing Yards -110 at FanDuel

Chiefs-49ers Model Player Prop

Isiah Pacheco O/U 67.5 Rushing Yards

The oddsmakers at Caesars Sportsbook must like to live dangerously because they’ve been hanging an off-market number for this Isiah Pacheco player prop for two days. OddsShopper’s Premium tools recommend getting action down on this one ASAP. Our model works for the NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB — as well as other sports — so no matter what time of year it is, you’re getting sharp bets to build your bankroll.

So how does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. On Saturday and Sunday only, you can take 58% off your first month via code “SUPERBOWL”!

Isiah Pacheco has run wild this postseason, beating this number in all three of his playoff appearances. He has done so on 24, 15 and 24 carries. Only the Baltimore Ravens kept him close to under this number, holding him to 68. But as we saw against Buffalo, Kansas City will pivot away from Pacheco if the opposing team gets out to a lead, which would help the under considerably come Sunday.

Chiefs-49ers Player Prop Pick: Isiah Pacheco Under 67.5 Rushing Yards +110 at Caesars

Chiefs-49ers Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick for Super Bowl 58

So who finds paydirt on Super Bowl Sunday? Probably McCaffrey, but he is trading at odds of -210 to do so at FanDuel, which, while not a great price, is still beating the line available at Pinnacle, a sharp book. A same-game parlay of McCaffrey to score and the 49ers to win owns odds of +119, which I think is a pretty good deal. That bet should win more than half the time.

But enough about McCaffrey — he isn’t our anytime touchdown scorer pick. Neither is Travis Kelce. Instead, bettors looking for an anytime touchdown scorer selection may be best served by looking in an entirely different direction by wagering on quarterback Brock Purdy to find paydirt himself.

Purdy is trading at odds of +850 to find the end zone at FanDuel, which is worse than the +626 you’ll find at Pinnacle. While not known for his mobility, Purdy recorded six red-zone rushing attempts this year, two of which he turned into touchdowns. He hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown this postseason, but he did so versus the Seattle Seahawks last postseason.

The Chiefs have a pretty bad rushing defense, but their defensive backs are excellent. That could lead Kyle Shanahan to get creative near the goal line — or to Brock Purdy getting creative himself, as we saw him do on a crucial 21-yard run near the goal line against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game.

Chiefs-49ers Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Brock Purdy +850 at FanDuel

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Looking for more NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets!

Isaiah Sirois


Isaiah Sirois

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