The top two picks in the 2016 NFL Draft will face off against one another in Week 2, although not for the teams that originally selected them. Jared Goff now leads the Lions, who are coming off a loss and backdoor cover over the Philadelphia Eagles. Carson Wentz now heads the Commanders, who are coming off a win and cover over the Jacksonville Jaguars, although it took some late-game heroics for them to seal the deal. The sportsbooks predict the Commanders and Lions for a close game in Ford Field, although the home team currently has the edge across the betting market. Wentz is expected to toss for more yards than Goff according to player prop markets.
Neither team looks perfect heading into Week 2, but both franchises have positives they can point to. For Washington, Wentz tossed four touchdown passes, including two to rookie first-rounder Jahan Dotson. For Detroit, the revamped pass rush forced tons of pressure against Philadelphia’s top-ranked offensive line. Oh, and third-year running back D’Andre Swift ran for 144 yards on just 15 carries!
Commanders vs. Lions Week 2 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Commanders vs. Lions Betting Odds
Wentz Looked Good, Wasn't Pressured
The Jacksonville Jaguars blitzed Wentz 16 times but failed to hurry him once. He was pressured on just 8.9% of snaps. The Jaguars recorded a lone sack on a 3-second rush from rookie Travon Walker but otherwise came up empty. That allowed Wentz to complete 65.8% of his passes for 313 yards and four scores. Running back Antonio Gibson led the team in rushing yards, receiving yards and receptions, but all four touchdowns went to wide receivers.
Washington's offensive line deserves some credit for holding up against the blitz. However, they may have gotten lucky against a bad Jaguars pass rush. Guards Trai Turner and Wes Schweitzer recorded PFF pass-blocking grades below 40. Washington's offensive line ranked just 24th in adjusted sack rate last year, so any more pressure could seriously expose Wentz. He already threw two interceptions despite the relative lack of pressure.
The Commanders played decent defense but still gave up a go-ahead score to Jacksonville in the fourth quarter. Slot receiver Christian Kirk chewed up the secondary for 117 yards on just six receptions, while boundary receivers Zay Jones and Marvin Jones added another 103 yards on 10 catches. Washington blitzed 18 times but never hurried Lawrence, though they did record two sacks and nine quarterback hits. Running backs James Robinson and Travis Etienne looked very efficient and averaged 7.5 yards per carry.
Lions Started Strong, then Collapsed
The Detroit Lions held a touchdown lead after the first quarter. But after a terrible start to the second quarter, they found themselves in a two-score hole from which they never recovered. Quarterback Goff did his best to lead Detroit in a late-game comeback, but he just came up short. He completed 56.7% of his passes for 215 yards and two scores. Running backs Swift and Jamaal Williams combined for another 172 yards and two scores.
Still, Detroit deserves plenty of credit for putting up a fight against the favorite to win the NFC East. The Lions blitzed Philadelphia's league-best offensive line 17 times, and they racked up four hurries, four hits and one four-yard sack. Pressuring any quarterback on 20.9% of his dropbacks can cause problems, but Hurts was often able to escape the pocket with his legs. Fortunately for Detroit, Wentz lacks that mobility.
Detroit's defense forced Philadelphia to funnel its offense through three players: Hurts, Miles Sanders and A.J. Brown. The trio combined for 350 of Philadelphia's rushing and receiving yards or 76.2%. The Lions shut down wide receiver DeVonta Smith. The sophomore wideout faced primary coverage from Jeff Okudah and caught none of his four targets.
Commanders vs. Lions Prediction
Detroit's aggressive defensive playstyle and solid cornerback play should force Wentz to take plenty of dump-off passes and possibly sacks. Washington's situation in the trenches supports this argument. Guard Schweitzer played hurt and is questionable for Week 2. Both he and his backup, Turner, struggled in pass protection on the interior.
Bettors can attack Washington's mediocre offensive line in two ways via the player prop markets. First, bettors can buy the Over on Gibson's receiving yards. Gibson often serves as a short-yardage dump-off weapon and the number for that prop sits at just 21.5, well below the 72 yards receiving he recorded in Week 1. Gibson saw plenty of work as a receiver in Week 1. He ran 20 routes and recorded a route participation rate of 48.8%. If that usage continues, Gibson should easily surpass this number. Detroit allowed Philadelphia's running backs to reel in four passes for 21 yards last week on just six targets.
Bettors with access to DraftKings Sportsbook can attach the player props market another way. Using the same-game parlay feature, bettors can target Wentz to take two-plus sacks. Since a heavily pressured Wentz likely won't lead the Commanders out to a big lead, bettors can pair that play with a teased-down number for Detroit against the spread.
Commanders vs. Lions Prediction: Gibson Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Commanders vs. Lions Same-Game Parlay: DET 2+ Sacks & DET +7.5 (+110 at DraftKings)
