The NFL Divisional Round is here and there are plenty of props to explore for Saturday’s pair of games! Our projections are showing numerous edges and we’re looking to exploit those with this week’s DraftKings Pick6 predictions. Here are your top two plays for the NFL Divisional Round!
DraftKings Pick6 NFL Predictions for NFL Divisional Round Saturday
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C.J. Stroud M/L Than 34.5 Pass Attempts
Last week, we backed C.J. Stroud to stay under 33.5 pass attempts, and it cashed – just barely – with him throwing 33 times. This week, I’m flipping the script and taking the over on his pass attempts.
The Houston Texans enter this matchup as 8.5-point underdogs, and if that spread holds, Stroud and the offense will need to throw often to keep pace.
Adding to the case, the Kansas City Chiefs’ run defense has been stellar this season, allowing just 4.1 yards per carry – 3rd best in the NFL. If Joe Mixon struggles to find room on the ground, the Texans may have to lean on their passing game from the start.
When these teams met earlier this season, the Chiefs won 27-19. Notably, Stroud attempted 39 passes in that game – his second-highest total of the year, only surpassed by the 40 attempts he had against Jacksonville in Week 4. To compete with the defending Super Bowl champs, Houston will likely need to rely heavily on Stroud’s arm once again.
Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections also have Stroud throwing 36 times, which is the highest projection among this weekend’s quarterbacks.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: C.J. Stroud More Than 34.5 Pass Attempts
Jahmyr Gibbs M/L Than 83.5 Rushing Yards
Sonic and Knuckles will be back in full force as David Montgomery rejoins Jahmyr Gibbs in the Lions’ backfield for the first time since Montgomery’s Week 15 injury against the Bills.
With Montgomery returning, many might assume Gibbs’ production will decline. While that’s likely true to some extent, it doesn’t mean Gibbs won’t remain highly effective in a slightly reduced role. Yes, Montgomery will take some carries, but we should expect the Lions to ease him back into action, leaving Gibbs with a significant share of the workload still, especially given his strong performance in Montgomery’s absence. Over the last three games, Gibbs has averaged 21.3 carries for 121.7 yards and scored six total touchdowns.
When Montgomery was in the mix, Gibbs averaged 13 carries for 75 yards per game. However, that was with a fully healthy Montgomery. While Montgomery insists he’s back to 100%, it’s reasonable to expect the Lions to ease him back into action rather than immediately giving him his full, usual workload.
Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections align with this notion, predicting Gibbs to carry the ball 18 times for 93 yards. These projections support the idea that Gibbs will continue to handle a heavy workload, and I fully agree. Adding to the optimism, the Washington Commanders’ run defense has struggled, allowing 4.7 yards per carry and ranking 24th in rush success rate allowed. As 9-point favorites, the Lions are likely to control the clock and lean heavily on their running game, too.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: Jahmyr Gibbs More Than 83.5 Rushing Yards
