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Eagles-Buccaneers Pick & Prediction: Monday’s Total a Sharp Bet (Sept. 25)

The Philadelphia Eagles will visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this weekend. The Eagles get a bit of a rest advantage, since they last played on Thursday, while the Buccaneers played last Sunday.  Let’s dig into Monday’s Eagles-Buccaneers betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 3 bet!

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Eagles-Buccaneers Pick & Betting Prediction | Monday Night Football

Monday Night Football Betting Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Eagles: -230 | Buccaneers: +190
Eagles -4.5: -118 | Buccaneers +4.5: -104
Over 45: -110 | Under 45: -110

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Eagles-Buccaneers Pick & Prediction

The Philadelphia Eagles will visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this weekend in a battle between undefeated teams. It’s easy to forget that the Eagles are undefeated and 1-0-1 ATS given the defeatist narratives swirling around Philadelphia, but the Eagles really aren’t that bad. In fact, they’re actually pretty good. Philadelphia ranks 18th in expected points added (EPA) per play and 14th in EPA allowed per play. That’s not bad for a team that has played in the rain and on a short week. However, the Buccaneers rank 11th and seventh in those metrics, respectively.

The problem for Monday night’s game is that the Buccaneers cannot block. Their offensive line ranks 26th in pass-block win rate (26%) and 28th in run-block win rate (66%). That will prove to be a problem against Philadelphia’s defensive front, which ranks 15th in pass-rush win rate (46%) and third in run-stop win rate (37%). Stud linemen like Fletcher Cox and Jalen Carter, who are complemented by above-average guys like Brandon Graham and Jordan Davis, will make life hell for Tampa Bay’s thin offensive line.

The Buccaneers have succeeded despite the offensive line’s mediocre play because of Baker Mayfield‘s quick processing speed and matchups against low-quality defensive lines. Tampa Bay’s two opponents to this point, the Vikings and Bears, have lines that rank 19th/26th and 16th/14th in pass-rush and run-stop win rates, respectively. Monday’s matchup will be their first true test. Meanwhile, Mayfield is spending only 2.4 seconds in the pocket per dropback, which is in line with his final year in Cleveland but is much faster than what he recorded in Carolina (2.5) and L.A. (2.6).

Check out our top picks for NFL Week 3 here! >>

The total for Monday’s game was trading at 46 earlier in the week, but it’s down to 45 now. Posting that number for this Eagles-Buccaneers game is a mistake. These defenses both rank above the league average in EPA allowed per play, and they’re also operating at below-average clips. Tampa Bay ranks 22nd in seconds per play (29.4) while Philadelphia ranks 30th (31). While both squads are playing much slower than the 25.6 and 28.2 they averaged last year, their offenses seem to have genuinely slowed down — the Eagles are running the ball 4% more often while the Buccaneers are running it 17.2% more.

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Eagles-Buccaneers NFL Week 3 Pick: Under 45 -110 at DraftKings

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