It’s time to continue our Lindy’s Best NFL Locks Today series. For Thursday’s expert NFL picks, we are looking at a stud tight end in the Lions-Packers game and exploring a number of picks around him. Let’s get into some Thursday Night Football bets.
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Expert NFL Picks Today: Lions-Packers | September 28
Detroit Lions–Green Bay Packers (45.0 Game Total)
The tight end position — save for Travis Kelce — has been a wasteland in the NFL this season. Whether on your year-long fantasy squad or in the betting streets, it is undeniable how difficult it has been to pin down production amongst them, save for the occasional goal line passing game role. Yet Thursday Night Football blesses us with perhaps the most stable producer at the position through three weeks in Lions rookie Sam LaPorta, and I for one am excited to back him in this spot.
The Iowa product has immediately stepped into a massive role in Ben Johnson’s offense, averaging 7.3 targets and 6.0 catches per outing on the young season. He’s played 80% of the offensive snaps on the season, carries a 22.7% target share that trails only Amon-Ra St. Brown on the Lions, and his 11 targets in Week 3 was only one shy of St. Brown’s allocation of opportunities. Now, the Packers have traditionally scheduled to suppress opposing tight ends, holding them to a league-low 512 yards to the position in 2022. But barring injury, LaPorta should continue to be the de facto No. 2 pass-catcher for the Lions this season, and that wins out for me versus the matchup.
To the bets: There’s distinct value at LaPorta’ 42.5 receiving yards and 4.5 receptions props according to OddsShopper, and his anytime touchdown numbers based on my projections. I’m more inclined to lean on the receptions prop over the others, as LaPorta has been extremely efficient with his targets this season, and it comes with a plus-money price tag (+110 on DraftKings) that the 42.5 receiving yards prop does not (-106 on Caesars Sportsbook). But exposure to all three will be my path on this Thursday Night, so join me and let’s have ourselves a night.
Expert NFL Picks Today: Sam LaPorta Over 4.5 Receptions +110 (LOCK) at DraftKings