The Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers will meet for the second time in under three weeks on Thursday Night Football to kickoff NFL Week 10. The Falcons are currently slight favorites in the NFL odds. Bettors looking for a positive return should tail this Falcons-Panthers prediction or check out OddsShopper’s tools for more sharp plays.
There are several angle to approach in this one, and bettors should not sleep on this kicker prop prediction for Younghoe Koo that sands out in this NFL Week 10 matchup.
NFL Odds: Falcons-Panthers Odds
All systems go for Arthur Smith's rushing attack
At 4-5, the Falcons find themselves tied with the Buccaneers for the lead in the NFC South. They rank a solid 16th in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and are solidly average in expected points added (EPA) per play. All but one of their five losses came by one score or fewer.
Atlanta's offense has led the way. The Falcons rank an impressive eighth in offensive DVOA and 14th in yards per play (5.5). Atlanta ranks a solid 12th in yards per rush attempt (4.8) and fourth in rushing yards per game (162.9). The return of Cordarrelle Patterson, who missed the first game against Carolina, has given the rushing attack a shot in the arm. Atlanta averaged only 4.5 yards per rush attempt against Carolina in Week 8 but averaged 5.7 with him back in the mix last week.
Several factors account for Atlanta's success on the ground beyond efficient play by the running backs. Although the offensive line ranks 25th in run-block win rate, it ranks an impressive sixth in adjusted line yards. Atlanta's rushers have averaged a solid 3.1 yards before contact per attempt (YBC/A). Quarterback Marcus Mariota's mobility has forced offenses to try and defend two viable rushing threats each play.
Unfortunately, Atlanta's defense hasn't held up its side of the bargain. The Falcons rank a lowly 29th in defensive DVOA and 31st in yards allowed per play (6.1). While the Falcons rank a solid 12th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.3), they also rank a dismal 30th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.4). The injury to lead boundary cornerback A.J. Terrell hasn't helped, but the pass rush's league-low pressure percentage (10.7%) is the bigger issue.
Not much has gone right in Charlotte
These are not the Carolina Panthers the Falcons faced in Week 8. Although the Panthers couldn't find a deal for DJ Moore or Brian Burns, they made it clear to the locker room that this season is going nowhere fast. Interim head coach Steve Wilks has already fired two of his assistants, cornerbacks coach Evan Cooper and defensive line coach Paul Pasqualoni.
The Panthers have been one of the NFL's worst teams this year. They rank last in total DVOA and are a bottom-five team in EPA per play. Neither Baker Mayfield nor P.J. Walker has been able to elevate this team, and the Panthers are likely to invest in a new quarterback this offseason. Although Walker threw for a career-high 317 yards against Atlanta in Week 8, he followed that performance by throwing for nine yards against the Bengals in Week 9.
Carolina's offense hasn't done much well other than run. The Panthers rank 20th in yards per play (5.3) and 21st in yards per pass attempt (6.7) but 15th in yards per rush attempt (4.6). That said, the Panthers have had to pass frequently to catch up to opponents, and they rank 22nd in rushing yards per game (105.3). Still, their offensive line ranks a solid eighth in adjusted line yards and 15th in run-block win rate.
Carolina has also struggled defensively. The Panthers rank 28th in defensive DVOA and 17th in yards allowed per play (5.5). They just allowed the Bengals to gash them for 6.4 yards per play as well. The Panthers rank 28th in rushing yards allowed per game (139.3), 82.6% of which have gone to running backs. Caleb Huntley and Tyler Allgeier combined for 130 rushing yards against them in Week 8.
Final Falcons-Panthers Prediction & Pick
With Atlanta's offense leaning on the run, Atlanta's drives can stall out somewhat easily. The Falcons rank 10th in field goals attempted per game (2.1) and averaged at least two attempts in their last three games. They attempted -- and made -- three against the Panthers in Week 8. Carolina's defense also ranks 24th in field goal attempts allowed per game (2.2).
Atlanta's kicker, Younghoe Koo, primarily kicks indoors now. However, he is no stranger to kicking Bank of America Stadium. Koo has converted 10 of his 11 field goal attempts in Charlotte. Further, he is a respectable 35-for-41 when kicking outdoors.
The weather for Thursday night's game doesn't look good, but that may actually help stall out Atlanta's drives more than it hurts Koo's accuracy. Back Koo to make at least a pair of field goals as long as it's available in the plus money.
Falcons-Panthers Pick: Younghoe Koo Over 1.5 Field Goals (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
