The NFL delivered with an action-packed Week 2 slate, and we’ve got one more game on the card this evening to settle everything out. The Philadelphia Eagles will return from Brazil to host the Atlanta Falcons in a big NFC battle. As always, we’re here to give you the NFL betting advice you need for each game, but if you need more, check out our guide to NFL player prop betting or anytime touchdown betting. Without further ado, let’s dive into our Falcons-Eagles player prop pick and anytime touchdown bet for Monday Night Football, including a model pick for Saquon Barkley!
Falcons-Eagles Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | MNF
Falcons-Eagles Player Prop Pick for Saquon Barkley
When you bet on an NFL player prop, what do you look for? Do you have an NFL player prop betting strategy or are you just guessing? If you’re tired of guessing (and, you know, losing), check out Portfolio EV. We’re sitting at 234-192 (5.3% ROI) on all NFL bets with an OS Rating of 2 or better.
When you up the OS Rating, the ROI improves. I feature only the best picks in these columns, and those wagers are 6-1 so far this season. Bets with an OS Rating of 5 or higher are 74-58 (8.9%). Now, our results are based on a large sample of bets, which raises my next point: you should be placing more bets for less money.
Any good NFL player prop strategy (and sports betting strategy more broadly) should focus on constructing a diversified portfolio of bets that you expect to win more often than they lose (see — positive expected value (+EV)). To help you do so, let’s spotlight a featured play from our tools for Saquon Barkley.
Editor’s Note: Until 11:59 p.m. PT tonight, take 30% off Portfolio EV with code “MNFPROPS”!
Barkley should have a sizeable role on Monday night with A.J. Brown ruled out, but a good deal is a good deal. You’ll find Barkley’s receiving yardage prop set to 20.5 at Fanatics. Everywhere else is at 17.5 or lower.
Portfolio EV, our market-based sports betting model, says us that this Barkley NFL player prop bet should be priced at -129, not -115. That makes this wager enough of a +EV bet for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to wager $24.
While that may not sound like much, that’s 2.4% of your bankroll. If you follow the recommended bet sizing and this bet wins, that’s a 2.1% return on your full bankroll.
Placing more of these bets each week can help you stack positive returns and make a much larger profit.
Viewing your sports bets as a portfolio of investments with +EV instead of a series of “locks” can help you unlock a higher return on investment, one that compounding returns can bring to the moon.
Falcons-Eagles Player Prop Model Pick: Saquon Barkley Under 20.5 Receiving Yards -115 at Fanatics
Falcons-Eagles Player Prop Pick for Jalen Hurts
The Philadelphia Eagles come into their Week 2 road matchup against the Atlanta Falcons as a 5.5-point home favorite. Although the Falcons were a much-hyped team coming into the season, their disappointing Week 1 performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers has derailed the hype train.
Things aren’t all good for the Eagles. Their top receiver, A.J. Brown, has already been ruled out. This is an especially significant issue since Brown is their only big-bodied boundary receiver. DeVonta Smith and Jahan Dotson lack the bulk to do what Brown does so well.
Without Brown, offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has fewer options in the passing game. I expect him to call a run-heavy game script for Jalen Hurts and company, especially if the Eagles can get out to an early lead as the market expects. That forecast is similar to what we saw last week – despite playing a fast-paced, close game, Philadelphia threw only 48.7% of the time.
I got Hurts to stay under 235.5 passing yards for -110 at Fanatics yesterday. You won’t find that line now. The best deal you can currently find is the under 232.5 for -110 at BetRivers, which, while not as good, is a decent bet in case you didn’t take this one when I recommended it via Tails by OddsShopper.
Falcons-Eagles Player Prop Pick: Jalen Hurts Under 232.5 Passing Yards -110 at BetRivers
Falcons-Eagles Anytime Touchdown Bet for Monday Night Football
Keep it simple, stupid. That’s what the Philadelphia Eagles will need to do with A.J. Brown already ruled out. The lack of a true red-zone threat at wide receiver will change the playbook near the goal line.
Last year, Brown led the Eagles in targets inside the 20 (15) and inside the 10 (7). Brown’s 15 red-zone targets were nearly double the next two players, Dallas Goedert (10) and DeVonta Smith (6).
So, whose number will get called when the Eagles are near the goal line? Saquon Barkley (-170) is a bit too easy of an answer. Instead, Jalen Hurts (+110) stands out.
Last year, Hurts notched the seventh-most carries inside the 20 (43) and the seventh-most inside the 5 (16). While center Jason Kelce is gone, the line at FanDuel is an overcorrection.
You’ll find Hurts’ anytime touchdown scorer odds trading for -104 at Pinnacle. The same wager is available for odds between +100 and -139 at other books. We’re beating the market by a healthy enough margin to warrant buying this one at FanDuel.
Falcons-Eagles Anytime Touchdown Bet: Jalen Hurts +110 at FanDuel
