Week 8 of the NFL winds down tonight in Pittsburgh with two teams on the opposite side of the standings. The host Steelers are looking at winning the AFC North and beyond — while the Giants are simply trying to avoid the inevitable early end of their season. Trying to avoid a third straight loss, Daniel Jones and the wounded Giants will look to slow down the defensive juggernaut that is a Mike Tomlin-led squad. Someone’s gotta score, right? Here are your top two Giants-Steelers player props — including an anytime touchdown — for Monday Night Football.
Giants-Steelers Player Prop Pick for Najee Harris
In case you missed it, Najee Harris is a lock to clear his rushing prop. It seems to be one of the most, if not the most, popular player props on the board. It makes sense; the Giants are atrocious in stopping the run, with the numbers getting worse as the talent gets better. Harris is on the better side of backs the Giants faced and should be a featured part of the Steelers offense. While it’s tempting to jump right along with the rest of the planet and take him to rush for more than 63.5 yards, we found a different pathway.
The Steelers are going to run, and they have a far better rushing attack than the Giants have a rush defense. They are trying to get out of a non-conference primetime game against a bad team without any injury. The reality is they still need to run the ball, especially to run out clock. There’s no need for this offense to continue to throw or risk any injury to Russell Wilson if they are up by 20 late in the third. Harris is essentially a closer for a positive game script come the second half.
It’s rather bad in New York right now, as the Giants are giving up nearly 5.5 yards per carry. No, that wasn’t inflated by a torching of the Eagles last week — the Giants stink at stopping the run. Running the ball is exactly what the Steelers do, running over half of the time they call a play. Not many teams in the league boast that level of commitment to running the football, and they will continue to do it with Harris.
The Steelers are essentially looking to run, run and run to also avoid putting the Giants pass rush in play. The one thing the Giants have been able to do is get to the opposing quarterback while limiting passing yards — probably because it’s so easy to run on them. Mike Tomlin isn’t a bozo and Arthur Smith looks way more competent than Matt Canada. The point is the Steelers aren’t dumb enough to mess this up — Harris should hit 18 to 20 carries.
Giants-Steelers Player Prop Pick: Najee Harris Over 15.5 Carries
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Giants-Steelers Anytime Touchdown Bet for NFL Monday Night Football
The heavy favorite for anyone scoring a touchdown tonight is going to be Harris. Follow that up with George Pickens, who led the target share last week against the Jets with nine from Wilson. The Giants simply are too volatile to play, and we would need a far better number for Malik Nabers. Instead, we find value down the line with another target for Wilson, combined with some fireworks.
Calvin Austin III has big play capability and saw four targets last week. While the focus remains on slowing down Pickens, the Giants secondary is good enough to focus on the top target combined with pressure on Wilson. There’s going to be a far greater chance that Austin has solo coverage on him than Pickens or even tight end Pat Freiermuth. I love Austin here to make some noise and get behind some weaker coverage as the Giants have their hands full with the main three — Harris, Pickens and Freiermuth.
Giants-Steelers Anytime Touchdown Bet: Calvin Austin III +500 at BetMGM
