Neither the New York Jets nor the Cleveland Browns are starting the season as planned. With quarterbacks Zach Wilson and Deshaun Watson unavailable, the teams have turned to journeymen backups, Jacoby Brissett and Joe Flacco. With the Browns opening as six-point home favorites over the Jets, the sportsbooks predict that Brissett’s Browns will beat the Jets. Still, the player props for Brissett don’t inspire much confidence — his passing yardage total sits below 200.
That said, Week 1 didn’t go well for either signal-caller. Brissett completed only 52.9% of his passes for 147 yards. He took one sack and recorded just 3.9 net yards per attempt (NY/A). Flacco completed a respectable 62.7% of his throws, but he scored only one touchdown, threw a pick and took three sacks. He recorded only 4.8 net yards per attempt (NY/A). Both passing games must improve moving forward.
Jets vs. Browns Week 2 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Jets vs. Browns Betting Odds
Joe Flacco Isn't an Elite Quarterback
Flacco played well enough to keep the starting job over Mike White and the injured Zach Wilson. It's a fair conclusion, as he owns a better QB Elo rating than both White and Wilson, but he still fares worse in the metric than all but one starting quarterback in the AFC: Trevor Lawrence. Flacco took a conservative approach on Sunday and averaged only 3.3 air yards per pass attempt, meaning his passes rarely went far downfield. That ranks 23rd among starting quarterbacks. However, Flacco does give this team a calm, veteran presence and he'll help New York's young skill-position players develop, especially Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson.
On defense, the Jets generated some pressure and limited Baltimore's rushing attack. New York sacked Lamar Jackson twice and hit him five times. No Baltimore rusher, including Jackson, tore off a run longer than 10 yards. The Ravens averaged just three yards per attempt and failed to surpass the 100-yard mark. Former Raven C.J. Mosley led the way in tackles. However, New York's defense surrendered plenty of big plays in the passing game, including a 55-yard touchdown to Rashod Bateman.
But it's New York's offensive line that should concern prospective Jets backers the most. The Jets already lost tackles Duane Brown and Mekhi Becton. Those injuries forced George Fant to the left tackle spot and thrust Max Mitchell into the starting lineup. The Ravens sacked Flacco three times and totaled 11 quarterback hits as a result. That pressure derailed several New York drives, and continued struggles in the trenches could derail Week 2's matchup against Cleveland.
Running Backs Stole the Show in Week 1
Brissett barely outranks Flacco in QB Elo rating and averages even fewer air yards per attempt (3.1). Still, he didn't need to. The Browns won their Week 1 matchup behind strong performances from running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The tandem combined for 210 all-purpose yards and two scores. Brissett generated only 112 yards of offense -- 31.5% of the team's total yardage.
Cleveland's offensive line deserves most of the credit. Even without right tackle Jack Conklin, the Browns allowed only one sack and four quarterback hits. Carolina's stocky defensive front recorded only four tackles for loss despite facing 39 rushing attempts. Considering the Browns' offensive line led the NFL in adjusted line yards last year, this solid performance came as no surprise.
Still, the Browns barely escaped with a win on Sunday because of inconsistent defense and tepid offense. Former Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield threw a deep pass to Robbie Anderson for a 75-yard touchdown to bring the Panthers within a score. Carolina then stuffed Cleveland to get the ball back with just over two minutes remaining, and a quick drive by the Panthers gave them the lead with just over a minute left. Brissett could only drive the Browns 35 yards downfield before Cleveland settled for a 58-yard field goal that fourth-round rookie kicker Cade York boomed through the uprights.
Jets vs. Browns Prediction
The Browns are 6.5-point favorites over the Jets across the NFL betting market. Cleveland has drawn 65% of the action but on only 60% of the tickets, so the sharps have stayed away from the Browns. In contrast, the total has moved significantly. It opened at 43.5 but has crashed to 39.5 behind 86% of the cash on just 63% of the tickets. Tailing the sharps could be smart, but most of the value has long since disappeared on the total.
That leaves the Jets and Browns' player prop markets to explore. York impressed in his debut by nailing four field goals, including a 58-yarder. He also made both of his extra-point attempts. The Browns finally have a reliable kicker, and they'll need one with a run-first offense and Brissett under center. York accounted for 14 of Cleveland's points in Week 1 yet has a total of just 6.5 across the player prop markets. Backing the over should prove sharp against New York's defense, especially if Cleveland's inability to find the end zone continues.
Jets vs. Browns Prediction: Cade York Over 6.5 Points (-115 at DraftKings)
