The Minnesota Vikings escaped Thanksgiving with a win against the New England Patriots. They’ve had that extra rest to get healthy in time to face the New York Jets, who defeated the Chicago Bears after benching quarterback Zach Wilson and starting Mike White. The Vikings are slight home favorites in the NFL odds, and bettors looking for a positive return should tail this Jets-Vikings prediction and pick.
Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp NFL plays.
NFL Odds: Jets-Vikings Odds
[osoddswidget]
New York Improving Under Mike White
Although Wilson was 5-2 as a starter this season, the Jets (7-4) were right to make a quarterback change. Wilson ranks third-worst among eligible NFL quarterbacks in expected points added (EPA) per play (-0.09). That marks a slight improvement over his league-worst numbers from last season (-0.15), but because the Jets can get more efficient play from White, they’re better off leaving Wilson on the sidelines.
The Jets rank ninth in total defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) despite their abysmal quarterback play. Their defense deserves most of the credit. The Jets rank fourth in defensive DVOA and third in yards allowed per play (4.8). Their passing defense ranks fifth in EPA per dropback (-0.05), and their rushing defense ranks 14th in EPA per play (-0.07). Solid play in the defensive trenches accounts for New York’s success. The Jets rank fifth in pressure percentage (24.7%) and third in run-stop win rate.
New York’s offense has struggled, but replacing Wilson with White helps. White has the support of the locker room and completed 78.6% of his passes in his first start for 10.6 net yards per attempt (NY/A). Although it’s an incredibly small sample, White’s EPA per play (0.56) leads NFL quarterbacks. Even when that number regresses closer to what he recorded in a larger sample last season (0.06), it still marks a significant improvement over Wilson.
Injuries haven’t been a big problem for the Jets lately. The once injury-riddled offensive line has started to get healthy, with rookie right tackle Max Mitchell and right guard Nate Herbig returning last week, and swing tackle George Fant could return soon. New York could be without running back Michael Carter, but Ty Johnson and rookie Zonovan Knight filled in admirably against the Bears.
Minnesota Worse Than Record Suggests
The Vikings (9-2) are not nearly as good as their record suggests. All but one of their wins were within eight points, and they suffered two brutal losses to contending NFC East teams: the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. The advanced stats bear this out: The Vikings rank 22nd in total DVOA, giving them only 4.8 estimated wins to this point.
Fading the Vikings each week hasn’t been profitable, but the math says it should be. Minnesota’s offense ranks a 20th in DVOA and 19th in yards per play (5.3). The passing offense ranks 17th in EPA per play (0.04), and the rushing offense ranks 21st (-0.09). Wide receiver Justin Jefferson has come down with some incredible game-changing receptions, but the Vikings remain suspect on offense.
Minnesota also has a big question mark along the offensive line. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw remains out with a concussion, and backup Blake Brandel has allowed four sacks and owns a PFF grade of just 47.1. The Vikings already ranked 16th in pass-block win rate, so Cousins could be vulnerable to New York’s pass rush.
The Vikings also haven’t looked great on defense. They rank 23rd in defensive DVOA and 31st in yards allowed per play (6.1). Their passing defense ranks 19th in EPA per play (0.09), 21st in pressure percentage (20.3%), and 27th in pass-rush win rate. Minnesota has performed slightly better against the run, with its rushing defense ninth in EPA per play (-0.11) and 17th in run-stop win rate, but not well enough to jump off the page.
Final Jets-Vikings Prediction & Pick
The Vikings opened as field-goal favorites, and that’s exactly where they remained as of Saturday afternoon. However, the number could move come Sunday morning. New York has drawn 58% of the cash on just 45% of the tickets.
Minnesota was a sharp fade last week but covered against New England. However, the Vikings needed a special-teams touchdown, inefficient red-zone play from the Patriots, and a running into the punter penalty to cover. New England racked up more yardage than Minnesota on fewer plays. Look for the Jets to capitalize where the Patriots could not.
Final Jets-Vikings Pick: Jets +3 (-110, BetMGM)
Jets-Vikings OddsShopper Model Prediction
OddsShopper’s industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props — and even quarter- or half-based derivatives! Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model’s predictions and best bets for each game. For the Week 13 Jets-Vikings matchup, the model has identified Mike White as a player to fade at his current price.
Betting the under on White’s total passing touchdowns yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to FanDuel for the best price on the market!
