The Green Bay Packers head to Soldier Field for a historically significant matchup against the Chicago Bears. The Bears have 786 wins, most in NFL history, to Green Bay’s 785, in no small part due to the 35 more games Chicago has played. Bettors looking for a positive return on Sunday’s matchup should tail this Packers-Bears pick and prediction, or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp bets.
NFL Odds: Packers-Bears Odds
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Green Bay Can’t Stop the Run
Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers last Sunday added another to the list of ailments he has faced this season: a rib injury. Fortunately, Rodgers got “good news” from scans early this week, and he told Pat McAfee he intends to play Sunday. Rodgers broke his thumb against the New York Giants in Week 6 but has played through that since.
The Packers haven’t looked that great with Rodgers under center. They rank 15th in total defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). Their offense ranks a solid ninth in the metric and 13th in yards per play (5.6). But it’s been the rushing offense, not the passing offense, that has fared better than the NFL average. The Packers rank 10th in expected points added (EPA) per rush (-0.02) but only 21st in EPA per pass (0.01). Rodgers ranks only 23rd among quarterbacks in EPA per play (0) and 18th in completion percentage over expected (0.2%).
Green Bay’s running backs have impressed. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon each rank as a top-10 running back in rushing defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR), and Jones ranks fifth at the position in receiving DYAR. The two have found this success despite Green Bay’s offensive line ranking only 14th in run-block win rate.
The defense and special teams haven’t looked so great. The Packers rank 21st in defensive DVOA and 30th in special teams DVOA. Their rushing defense ranks a dismal 30th in both EPA per play (0.05) and run-stop win rate. As a result, the Packers have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs (127.1). Last Sunday night in a 40-33 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, Miles Sanders gashed them for 143 yards and two scores. Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott added another 63. Even quarterback Jalen Hurts racked up 157, including over 100 in the first quarter. Bears running back David Montgomery ran for 122 yards and a score in the first game against the Packers, although quarterback Justin Fields notched only 20 in the 27-10 Green Bay win.
Chicago Missing Key Players
The Bears will get Fields back in the lineup after he returned to full practice Thursday. Fields has excelled on the ground this year but hasn’t done much as a passer. Chicago’s offense ranks 22nd in EPA per dropback (0.01) and 32nd in passing yards per game (131.2).
Fields has a shortage of weapons this week. Running back Khalil Herbert remains on injured reserve, wide receiver Darnell Mooney went down for the season, and Chase Claypool picked up a knee injury last week. However, the Bears still have Montgomery to lean on. He ranks only 18th in total rushing DYAR but has played a crucial role in Chicago’s rushing offense, which ranks fourth in EPA per play (0.03). Montgomery has a trusty offense line in front of him that ranks seventh in run-block win rate.
Chicago’s defense might be one of the NFL’s worst. The unit lost Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith at the NFL trade deadline, and safety Eddie Jackson just landed on injured reserve with a foot injury. Chicago ranks 31st in defensive DVOA and 29th in yards allowed per play (5.9). Opposing quarterbacks have cut them up this year: The Bears rank 29th in EPA allowed per pass (0.22), almost two standard deviations worse than the league average. That said, Rodgers racked up only 234 passing yards — albeit on an efficient 7.4 net yards per attempt (NY/A) — because the Packers ran the ball 38 times for 203 yards.
Final Packers-Bears Prediction & Pick
The betting market for this game has fluctuated all week as a function of the uncertainty surrounding Fields. However, the markets have focused too much on Fields and too little on Chicago’s regressing defense. The Bears have allowed 356.3 yards over their past three games, the 10th most, despite playing at a slow pace. They just gave up 466 yards and 31 points to Mike White and the New York Jets.
The Packers scored 27 points against the Bears earlier in the season, and the Bears have since lost Quinn, Smith and Jackson on defense. Rodgers has since developed chemistry with rookie wideout Christian Watson as well. Yet Green Bay’s team total sits at or under the key number of 24, which it has beaten in two of the past three weeks.
Final Packers-Bears Pick: Packers Over 24 (-108, FanDuel)
Packers-Bears OddsShopper Model Prediction
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Betting the over on Christian Watson‘s total receiving yards yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to DraftKings for the best price on the market!
