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Lions-Packers Pick, Prediction & DraftKings Odds Boost for Thursday Night Football (Sept. 28)

The Detroit Lions will visit the Green Bay Packers in an important NFC North battle. Lots of analysts were writing the Packers off this offseason, including yours truly — but I did so largely because of my faith in Detroit. Let’s dig into Thursday’s Lions-Packers betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 4 bet! Also, don’t forget to use your 50% Lions-Packers profit boost for Thursday Night Football at DraftKings Sportsbook!

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Lions-Packers Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 4

Thursday Night Football Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Lions: -120 | Packers: +100
Lions -1.5: -108 | Packers +1.5: -112
Over 46: -112 | Under 46: -108

Lions-Packers Pick, Prediction & DraftKings Odds Boost

The Detroit Lions will visit the Green Bay Packers in an actually good Thursday Night Football matchup. In the two Thursday night games played following a short rest this season, we’ve seen the favorites go off for 30-plus points. The Eagles hung 34 on the Vikings and the 49ers hung 30 on the Giants. Although the Lions are the slimmest of favorites for this matchup, I expect plenty of points in this game, and Detroit’s offense is the best equipped to put them on the board.

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The Lions have looked like one of the NFL’s best offenses again this year. They rank a steady ninth in expected points added (EPA) per dropback, which is a credit to Jared Goff, who ranks sixth among quarterbacks in the metric this season. Goff has an elite offensive line in front of him and impressive weapons in wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who owns an elite PFF grade of 79.4, and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, who owns an 80.7.

Green Bay’s defense isn’t all that threatening, especially with all of the key pieces on the initial injury report for this game. Cornerback Jaire Alexander, safety Zayne Anderson and linebacker De’Vondre Campbell were all estimated as DNPs for Monday’s session. Alexander missed Week 3’s game with a back issue that popped up on Friday’s injury report and could easily miss Week 4. His absence would open up plenty of opportunities for Goff to find his receivers open downfield.

Thursday Night Football is notoriously profitable for over bettors, and while I’m not getting action on the full-game total, it’s not a bad bet. Still, I’d rather just target the Lions to go over the 23.5-point team total. The Lions are averaging 24 points per game thus far after averaging 26.6 last season. They had some brutal home/away splits last season, but the short rest should make up for them having to play this one in Lambeau Field.

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After I suggested taking the Lions to surpass their team total of 23.5 points in the early week column, the books cut the line from around -102 to -110. Fortunately, we can take advantage of a 50% profit boost at DraftKings Sportsbook to get this line from -110 to +136 for the first $50. Nothing but positive injury news has tricked out of Detroit this week, but I remain concerned about several of Green Bay’s key defenders and the team’s ability to handle short rest. The Packers coughed up 27 points to a Titans team that averaged just 17.5 per game in a Thursday night game last season.

Lions-Packers NFL Week 4 Pick: Detroit Team Total Over 23.5 -110 (+136 Boosted) at DraftKings

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