Thursday Night Football has almost arrived, and with it comes a surprisingly good matchup between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. The Packers have played well since Jordan Love took over, but the Lions will look to assert their dominance in the NFC North with a win. I have a team total bet out on this game, but let’s also identify the best Lions-Packers player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Week 4’s edition of Thursday Night Football.
Lions-Packers Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Lions: -120 | Packers: +100
Lions -1.5: -108 | Packers +1.5: -112
Over 46: -112 | Under 46: -108
Lions-Packers Player Prop
The Green Bay Packers won’t have two of their starting offensive linemen, left tackle David Bakhtiari or left guard Elgton Jenkins. Those two missed Week 1 of Green Bay’s season last year, and Aaron Rodgers took four sacks to a Minnesota defense that ended the year with the 11th-fewest sacks (38) and the 10th-worst pressure percentage (19.5%). I expect a similar outcome on Thursday Night Football, especially with a Jordan Love under center.
It’s easy to quantify how much Bakhtiari and Jenkins add to this offensive line. The Packers currently rank ninth in pass-block win rate (63%). Jenkins owns a not-so-great PFF grade of 62.8 through three weeks, but Bakhtiari owns an impressive 78.3. Replacing them are likely Rasheed Walker and Royce Newman. Walker owns a solid 73.2, while Newman owns a disastrous 51.7.
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Bakhtiari and Jenkins also missed Green Bay’s Week 3 contest against the New Orleans Saints. Love took only one sack but was pressured on 24.5% of his dropbacks and was hit twice. Considering the Saints only rank 30th in pass-rush win rate (31%), Love got off easy. He now faces a Lions defense that ranks a slightly better 25th (36%) and features last year’s second overall pick, Aidan Hutchinson.
Hutchinson is a sharp bet to record at least one sack on Thursday. He compiled 9.5 sacks last year, good for 0.6 per game, and 14 hurries, good for 0.8 per game. This year, he has compiled two sacks and ten hurries, good for 0.7 and 3.3 per game, respectively — far better than what we saw from him last year. Hutch tallied two tacks against the Packers last season, and I’m buying him to record at least one full sack at odds of +150 (40%) via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Lions-Packers Player Prop Pick: Aidan Hutchinson Over 0.75 Sacks +150 at DraftKings
Lions-Packers Anytime Touchdown Scorer
The Lions scored four touchdowns against the Packers last year. All of them came from within the five-yard line, and two of them went to goal-line back Jamaal Williams. However, the Lions replaced Williams with David Montgomery in the offseason, and the ex-Chicago Bear is questionable with a thigh injury — although head coach Dan Campbell expressed optimism about Montgomery’s status on Tuesday.
Like the Packers, the Lions are dealing with some injuries in the trenches. Right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai is out. Left tackle Taylor Decker and left guard Jonah Jackson are both questionable. Even fullback Jason Cabinda is out. This raises the question of whether Campbell will deviate from goal-line philosophy from last season due to a lack of manpower and strength up front.
Last week, Jared Goff did something he hadn’t done since joining the Lions — he recorded a carry inside the five-yard line, which turned into a rushing score on a tricky red-zone play. Although we’re yet to see Campbell break out the quarterback sneak on the goal line, Detroit’s banged-up blockers could cause Campbell to get creative again, and Goff is an interesting longshot anytime touchdown scorer bet at odds of +750 (11.8%) at Caesars.
Lions-Packers Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Jared Goff +750 at Caesars
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