The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings have both opened the year with 1-1 starts. The Lions fell to an impressive Eagles team but then blew out the Commanders. The Vikings scored an impressively dominant win over the Packers but then got blown out by the Eagles. The sportsbooks predict the Vikings will score a solid win over the Lions, but Dan Campbell’s team has proven it won’t go down easy.
Transitively, it looks like Detroit offers solid value. Their three-point loss to the Eagles was much closer than Minnesota’s 17-point loss. But simple transitive analysis rarely means automatic value, so a deeper dive into each team’s performance is required to find the best betting line on odds on the market.
Lions vs. Vikings Week 3 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Lions vs. Vikings Betting Odds
Lions Look Great, But Goff Must Improve
Two players have powered Detroit's strong start: running back D'Andre Swift and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. Swift has averaged an absurd 10 yards per carry and 12.4 yards per catch. St. Brown has averaged 10.6 yards per catch and ranks fourth among all receivers in targets and receptions. He also tore off a 58-yard run against Washington. The two have helped this offense overcome quarterback Jared Goff's limitations. Goff has completed only 57.7% of his passes for six scores and 5.85 net yards per attempt (NY/A). He has taken four sacks and thrown one pick. Those numbers aren't terrible, but they aren't enough to propel the Lions without additional playmakers.
Detroit's offensive line entered the year with considerable hype that it has mostly lived up to. PFF ranked the unit third before the season began. The Lions now rank fourth in adjusted line yards and have allowed rushers to get an impressive 5 yards before contact per attempt. However, the unit ranks 16th in adjusted sack rate and has allowed Goff to face pressure on 19.7% of his dropbacks, but Philadelphia's and Washington's impressive pass rushers might be skewing those numbers. Detroit's line has been challenged with injuries early: center Frank Ragnow is questionable, and guard Jonah Jackson is out.
The defense has struggled at points, but it has flashed some big-play ability. Detroit has surrendered 5.9 yards per play, which ranks 22nd. That said, the defensive front ranks 13th in adjusted line yards and ninth in adjusted sack rate. The Lions have six sacks through two games, including a five-sack showing against the Commanders. Rookie pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson took down Carson Wentz three times and hit him after the throw another three times. That said, Hutchinson is questionable, and fellow edge rusher John Cominsky is out.
Vikings Must Diversify Offense, Bolster Defense
After Justin Jefferson rocked the world in Week 1, he and the Vikings fell back to Earth in Week 2. Jefferson caught nine passes for 184 yards and two scores against the Packers but only six passes for 48 yards against the Eagles. While cornerback Darius Slay can shut down anyone, the Vikings must have hoped for more from Jefferson -- Kirk Cousins certainly did. Through two games, Cousins has completed 64.1% of his passes for three scores and 5.81 NY/A. He has thrown three picks and taken three sacks.
Poor offensive line play can explain some of the offensive struggles but not all. Cousins has faced pressure on 26.5% of his dropbacks. Although he has only gone down three times, opposing defenses have hit him after the throw 13 times. As a result, Minnesota's fifth-best adjusted sack rate seems likely to regress. However, the Vikings have generated plenty of yards for their running backs, but neither Dalvin Cook nor Alexander Mattison has capitalized yet. The Vikings rank sixth in adjusted line yards and generate 2.8 yards before contact per rushing attempt -- yet Cook and Mattison have combined for only 151 rushing yards. Fortunately for Minnesota, their blockers have yet to face any injury challenges in the trenches.
Minnesota's defense dominated a banged-up Green Bay offensive line but imploded against the Eagles. But Green Bay's near-misses on big plays already suggested that Minnesota's defense was overrated heading into Week 2, and the numbers are starting to back that up. The defensive front ranks 31st in adjusted line yards. Minnesota has surrendered 6.4 yards per play, which ranks 28th, and the secondary has surrendered 7.9 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 30th. The problems in the secondary could get even worse without star safety Harrison Smith, who is out with a concussion.
That said, the pass rush has been a bright spot. Minnesota ranks fifth in adjusted sack rate, and multiple pass rushers have contributed to the process of generating 3.5 sacks per game, which ranks fourth. With Danielle Hunter returning to form and Za'Darius Smith joining the unit in free agency, the Vikings should scare opposing passers even if they can't stop the run.
Lions vs. Vikings Prediction
The Lions should take advantage of Minnesota's defense. Strong offensive line play should give D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams plenty of space. A weak Minnesota secondary without Smith should allow Jared Goff to connect with Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.J. Chark for splash plays downfield. The Lions will score, and they will score often.
The total for this game sits all the way up at 52, but with Minnesota listed as touchdown favorites, Detroit's team total offers the most value. The line varies between 22.5 and 23.5 at most books. While the 22.5 is the safer wager, bettors can get much more profitable returns from the 23.5, which sits in the plus money at Caesars.
Lions vs. Vikings Prediction: Lions Over 23.5 (+100) at Caesars
Lions vs. Vikings OddsShopper Model Prediction
OddsShopper's industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props -- and even quarter- or half-based derivatives! Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model's predictions and best bets for each game. For the Week 3 matchup between the Lions and Vikings, the model has identified a Minnesota receiver as a player to fade at his current price.
Betting the under on K.J. Osborn's total receptions prop yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to DraftKings for the best price on the market!
