Public perception plays into betting in the NFL more than any other sport. Knowing where the public is betting and if you should follow it or go against it is the difference between being a profitable bettor or being in the red. This week, there are three games in which the public has at least 75% of the bets, and all of them have a unique handicapping angle.
The Denver Broncos have become a “go-against” team for the public after their offensive woes on prime time and the angst for quarterback Russell Wilson. The Detroit Lions and Houston Texans are also “go-against” teams due to their records, so knowing if the Chicago Bears and New York Giants are for real versus just having a prime matchup is key to being successful in these games.
The picks in this article went 2-1 last week and have been 24-12 (67%) on the season.
Week 10 NFL Betting Trends & Handles vs. Bet Percentage Plays
Broncos at Titans (Titans -2.5, 39)
Titans -2.5; Bets 79%, Handle 49%
If someone were to write a movie or book about this game, it would be called “Smoke and Mirrors” because that is how to describe the Tennessee Titans season. Last week is a prime example, as they lost 20-17 in overtime at the Kansas City Chiefs despite being outgained 499-229 in total yards. In six out of eight games, the Titans have passed for fewer than 137 yards. They run the ball with Derrick Henry at 142.2 yards per game (eighth) and are 31st in yards passing. They allow 87.6 yards per game rushing on defense (second). Despite a negative point differential of 149-158, the Titans are 5-3 and in first place in the AFC South.
After losing four in a row, the Broncos found a way to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 21-17 two weeks ago. Low scoring does not even begin to describe Denver, which is 30th in points per game scored (15.1) and second in points per game allowed (16.5). Throw out the records and just look at these teams on paper; the Broncos should be able to win this game outright.
Looking at the matchups, the Titans will look to run the ball almost every first down and second down to exploit the Broncos’ 21st-ranked run defense. Tennessee does not throw the ball, so Denver’s No. 1 passing defense really just emphasizes how little they will throw. The Broncos had a bye week to prepare for this game, which will make a difference, and they will look to stack the box on defense to stop the Titans run game.
The trends on the under for these teams are astounding. The total has gone under in seven of Denver’s last eight games and is 5-0 in Tennessee’s last five games.
It feels like a broken record, but these games all seem to fall on 16-13, 20-17, etc. It is very easy to just say “take the points” in all of these coin-flip games, but that makes sense because it does not require a win, just a cover.
There were six games last week that had a 3-point margin of victory, and this NFL environment of close, lower-scoring games allows one to buy up to +3 or down to -2.5 much more. This one shapes up to be another 16-13 type game and a lean on the dog.
Best Bet: Broncos +3 (DraftKings -123) – FADE THE PUBLIC
Lions at Bears (Bears -2.5, 48.5)
Bears -2.5, Bets 79%, Handle 85%
The Bears find themselves in a rare situation, being a home favorite against the Lions, but the Bears’ season looks to have turned the corner when they crushed the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football 33-14 and destroyed a huge percentage of survivor pools. While Chicago’s record is just 3-6 and it has lost five out of six, the offense is clicking and good things are coming. After averaging 15.5 points per game in the first six games, Chicago has scored 31.3 points per game in its last three.
The Bears have the No. 1 run offense — 195.4 yards per game — which is mostly on the legs of quarterback Justin Fields, who ran for an NFL quarterback record 178 yards last week. His touchdown-to-interception ratio the last four games was 11-to-2 versus 3-to-4 in the first four games. Add in the addition of wide receiver Chase Claypool, and this offense is encouraging.
The Lions, on the other hand, got a home win last Sunday 15-9 in an ugly game against a Green Bay Packers team that needs to circle the wagons immediately. Detroit ranks close to dead last in most defensive categories: 332nd in yards per game allowed, 31st in yards rushing, 29th in yards passing and 32nd in points allowed. While the Lions’ seasonlong offensive numbers look strong, it has been the tale of two halves. In their first four games, the average score was 35 points; in the last four, it has been 12 points.
Often times, losing teams start to gain momentum only to get overconfident and lay an egg. The Bears are not in that position, as they are building this team around Fields and have confidence in him. The Lions are just playing out the season, and Dan Campbell might be the next NFL head coach to be fired. Look for the Bears to roll here, 38-20.
Best Bet: Bears -2.5 – FOLLOW THE PUBLIC
Texans at Giants (Giants)
Giants -4.5; Bets 76%, Handle 77%
The Texans are the worst team in football, with a 1-6-1 record. They rank bottom five in just about every category on both sides of the football, with the exception being 19th in yards passing allowed and points allowed. The big disparity is on the rushing side, where they rank 25th in yards rushing per game (101.9) but allow 180.6 (32nd), and the Giants are fourth in yards rushing per game (161.5).
This number feels low at Giants -4.5, and it really seems like it should be -7 or even higher, which has leads to concern about the “trap.” The Giants are 6-2 and had an extra week to prepare. When New York instills a running game down someone’s throat, it usually spells domination. The Giants will win at home 27-10.
Best Bet: Giants -4.5 – FOLLOW THE PUBLIC
