The Kansas City Chiefs have suffered some brutal losses due to poor wide receiver play lately. Wideout Kadarius Toney is one of the offenders, as his inability to line up onside last week cost the Chiefs a touchdown play, but I’m picking the over on a Kadarius Toney player prop bet for Sunday’s Chiefs-Patriots game anyway. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our NFL player prop bets and our NFL betting model’s picks!
NFL Chiefs-Patriots Player Prop: Best Kadarius Toney Bet
Chiefs-Patriots Odds
Odds via bet365
Chiefs: -425 | Patriots: +325
Chiefs -8: -110 | Patriots +8: -110
Over 37: -110 | Under 37: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 17 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: OddsShopper’s Model
Kadarius Toney Player Prop Bet
The struggling Kansas City Chiefs will take on the reeling New England Patriots on Sunday. Both squads haven’t had the seasons they’d hoped for, with the Patriots making a quarterback change and the Chiefs unable to get much production out of their wide receivers.
OddsShopper’s model wants some action on one of those struggling wide receivers, specifically, Kadarius Toney. Although Toney has become a bit of a laughingstock after lining up offsides and costing the Chiefs a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills, his quarterback and head coach have rallied around him.
Toney is an exceptional athlete and can make plays with the ball in space. He’ll get a dispirited New England defense that has allowed 2,066 total receiving yards to wideouts this year, good for 158.9 per game, which ranks at right about the league average. But OddsShopper’s model isn’t built on player projections — it’s built on exploiting market inefficiencies.
The public books are off on Toney this week. You’ll find Toney to record over 13.5 receiving yards priced at only -110 on bet365 and only -120 on BetMGM and DraftKings. However, Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the over 15.5 at odds of -129. OddsShopper’s model generates a fair market price, called true odds, by indexing the odds across the market, adjusting for book sharpness, hold and other factors, and we’ve got a line of -133 for this prop. That’s beating the odds available at three aforementioned public books, so lock this one in while you can. If you’re interested in signing up for OddsShopper Premium, use code “ISIROIS” at checkout to take 20% off.
Best NFL Chiefs-Patriots Player Prop Bet: Kadarius Toney Over 13.5 Receiving Yards -120 at bet365
