As the NFL playoffs rapidly approach, numerous teams find themselves in contention for a trip to the postseason. That’s great news for NFL player prop bettors, as few teams will find themselves in spots to take a break early and throw in the backups. Our staff of Isaiah Sirois and Justin Martin have identified several sharp betting angles to exploit, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the NFL player prop betting markets for Week 15, including Derrick Henry, for Texans-Titans, Jets-Dolphins, Bears-Browns and more.
NFL Player Props for Week 15: Picks for Derrick Henry & More
NFL Player Props for Week 15 | Zach Wilson Pick
Jets-Dolphins Odds
Odds via bet365
Jets: +350 | Dolphins: -350
Jets +9: -110 | Dolphins -9: -110
Over 36.5: -110 | Under 36.5: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 17 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: Justin Martin
Zach Wilson Player Prop
When the running game doesn’t produce, throw the football. That’s been the name of the game for the New York Jets when Zach Wilson is under center. Running back Breece Hall has struggled running the ball — he has averaged just 26 yards per game. In the passing game, it’s been a different story. With Wilson at the helm, Hall is averaging 53 receiving yards.
Now that we’ve dove into the run game aspect, let’s talk more about which Zach Wilson prop bet I’m taking. You may not know it, but head coach Robert Saleh trusts Zach Wilson. He had him sling the ball 36 times last week in a win against the Houston Texans in a game they led from wire to wire. Garrett Wilson earned 14 targets. Hall earned nine targets and caught eight. This week, Wilson will get to face off against the Miami Dolphins, who he didn’t get to start against on Black Friday. Instead, Tim Boyle was at the controls, but the Jets have since released him.
Due to their explosive offense, the Dolphins leave opponents in passing game scripts most of the game. Road teams throw the ball at the fifth-highest rate against the Dolphins. As 8.5-point underdogs — and with Wilson eclipsing this line in seven of 11 starts — I’ll gladly buy him to go over 29.5 pass attempts in a +EV spot on ESPNBet.
Best NFL Week 15 Player Prop Pick: Zach Wilson Over 29.5 Pass Attempts -105 on ESPNBet
NFL Player Props for Week 15 | Derrick Henry Pick
Texans-Titans Odds
Odds via bet365
Texans: +145 | Titans: -170
Texans +3: -110 | Titans -3: -110
Over 37: -110 | Under 37: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 17 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: OddsShopper’s Model
Derrick Henry Player Prop
The Tennessee Titans will host the Houston Texans this weekend. Although the Texans were trading as road favorites on the lookahead markets, injuries to superstar rookies C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. now have them trading as underdogs. With Tennessee favored, Derrick Henry stands out as a likely high-volume option.
OddsShopper’s model wants some action on Henry in this spot. Henry is averaging exactly 16.5 rushing attempts per game this year, but his splits make this one stand out. Henry averages 20 rushing attempts per game at home and 20.8 rushing attempts per game in wins. Correlation may not equal causation, but some books just haven’t adjusted enough for Tennessee’s advantage in this spot.
You’ll find Henry to record over 16.5 rushing attempts priced at only -105 on ESPNBet but at -120 or worse everywhere else. Some books, like FanDuel and bet365, even have the over 17.5 at shorter odds. OddsShopper’s model generates a fair market price, called true odds, by indexing the odds across the market, adjusting for book sharpness, hold and other factors, and we’ve got a line of -117 for this prop.
With the true odds of this prop trading at -117, OddsShopper’s model calculates that a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll should wager $25 on the -105 available at ESPNBet. Make sure to take advantage of the edge on this prop before it disappears — I also added the over 18.5 for odds of +185 to my betting card. If you’re interested in signing up for OddsShopper Premium, use code “ISIROIS” at checkout to take 20% off.
Best NFL Week 15 Player Prop Pick: Derrick Henry Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts -105 at ESPNBet
NFL Player Props for Week 15 | Jerome Ford Pick
Bears-Browns Odds
Odds via bet365
Bears: +125 | Browns: -150
Bears +3: -110 | Browns -3: -110
Over 37.5: -110 | Under 37.5: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 17 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Jerome Ford Player Prop
The Chicago Bears will visit the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, and the weather forecast calls for unfavorable conditions. Rain and winds between 15 to 20 mph are on tap, which will complicate moving the ball downfield through the air. Although Joe Flacco has a reputation for airing the ball out, I expect plenty of dump-off passes to end up the hands of running back Jerome Ford.
We’re targeting Ford because of two reasons beyond the weather. For one, Chicago’s defense hasn’t been able to stop running backs who can catch passes.
The Bears have coughed up an NFL-high 748 receiving yards to the position this year, good for 57.4 per game. We only need Ford to tally 15 yards to cash his over at bet365, so I’m eagerly adding this one to my card.
Next, Ford is coming off a massive game as a receiver. The running back ran 21 routes, good for a route participation rate of 45.7%, and drew six targets from Flacco. Ford has run 20-plus routes four times this year and 15-plus routes eight times.
Although the oddsmakers list Cleveland as a 3-point favorite, which usually points to an unfavorable game script for a passing offense, the Browns probably won’t have a big enough advantage to abandon the passing game early.
Let’s just hope the soggy conditions don’t prevent Ford from reeling in a few passes.
Best NFL Week 15 Player Prop Pick: Jerome Ford Over 14.5 Receiving Yards -110 at bet365
NFL Player Props for Week 15 | Kadarius Toney Pick
Chiefs-Patriots Odds
Odds via bet365
Chiefs: -425 | Patriots: +325
Chiefs -8: -110 | Patriots +8: -110
Over 37: -110 | Under 37: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 17 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: OddsShopper’s Model
Kadarius Toney Player Prop
The struggling Kansas City Chiefs will take on the reeling New England Patriots on Sunday. Both squads haven’t had the seasons they’d hoped for, with the Patriots making a quarterback change and the Chiefs unable to get much production out of their wide receivers.
OddsShopper’s model wants some action on one of those struggling wide receivers, specifically, Kadarius Toney. Although Toney has become a bit of a laughingstock after lining up offsides and costing the Chiefs a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills, his quarterback and head coach have rallied around him.
Toney is an exceptional athlete and can make plays with the ball in space. He’ll get a dispirited New England defense that has allowed 2,066 total receiving yards to wideouts this year, good for 158.9 per game, which ranks at right about the league average. But OddsShopper’s model isn’t built on player projections — it’s built on exploiting market inefficiencies.
The public books are off on Toney this week. You’ll find Toney to record over 13.5 receiving yards priced at only -110 on bet365 and only -120 on BetMGM and DraftKings. However, Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the over 15.5 at odds of -129. OddsShopper’s model generates a fair market price, called true odds, by indexing the odds across the market, adjusting for book sharpness, hold and other factors, and we’ve got a line of -133 for this prop. That’s beating the odds available at three aforementioned public books, so lock this one in while you can.
Best NFL Week 15 Player Prop Pick: Kadarius Toney Over 13.5 Receiving Yards -120 at bet365
NFL Player Props for Week 15 | Desmond Ridder Pick
Falcons-Panthers Odds
Odds via bet365
Falcons: -155 | Panthers: +130
Falcons -3: -110 | Panthers +3: -110
Over 33: -110 | Under 33: -110
When: Sunday, Dec. 17 at 1 p.m. ET
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Desmond Ridder Player Prop
The Carolina Panthers are not a good football team, but their flaws make fading Desmond Ridder here a sharp bet. The Panthers have allowed the third-fewest passing yards to quarterbacks on the year (2,423), good for 186.4 per game, largely because they cannot stop the run. With Atlanta passing at the fourth-lowest rate (52%), I don’t expect to see much out of Ridder.
Beyond Carolina’s poor rushing defense and Atlanta’s low-volume passing attack, Ridder just isn’t that efficient, especially when forced to play on the road. The second-year quarterback is averaging 198 passing yards per game on a completion percentage of 63.5%, but those numbers drop to 145.5 and 59.7% outside of Atlanta. He has cleared his passing prop total of 179.5 in just half of his road starts.
There is another reason to fade Ridder on Sunday: the weather. The forecast in Charlotte calls for an 80% chance of rain or greater from 11 a.m. through 7 p.m. — and that’s with winds of around 20 mph. Ridder will struggle to complete passes in those conditions, and with Atlanta leaning heavily on the run already and Carolina unable to stop it, I’m fading him on the passing yardage markets. Ridder tallied only 121 passing yards against the Panthers at home earlier in the year.
Best NFL Week 15 Player Prop Pick: Desmond Ridder Under 179.5 Passing Yards -115 at BetMGM
