Betting on the NFL early in the week oftentimes presents the best opportunities in value, especially when it comes to totals. Getting the best number available before the odds move is key to becoming a successful bettor.
Thankfully in Week 1 of the NFL season, we have a full slate of games to look at in the NFL betting odds market.
Below, I’ve broken down three of the best NFL bets on the board this week, with a focus on the total points. Check out all of my favorite NFL Week 1 picks, and be sure to use OddsShopper’s NFL line shopping tool when looking for the best value on all of your bets.
If you’re looking for more NFL picks this week, check out our best Week 1 NFL bets for EVERY GAME.
Week 1 NFL Picks: Best Bets for Game Total
Browns vs Panthers Pick (Panthers -2.5, 41.5)
I am a long-time football bettor who relies heavily on situational trends when it comes to totals. I also look at the potential game script and try to predict how the game will play out.
In this game, we have a total of 41.5, which has gone down from 43, so we already have one of the lowest totals on the board. Just because the game has a low total does not mean it is automatically going to be an UNDER. If you look at all games with a total between 40-42 over the last four years, the over is actually 50-43. You have to look at the line plus the total to create the scenario and game script.
From a situational standpoint, I run queries on the game and we have 14 games in which there was a home favorite between 0 and 2.5 with a total between 40 and 42. The UNDER has hit 11 out of 14 times in this scenario. So when oddsmakers say low scoring and close, they are typically getting it right.
On the game script side, we have a backup quarterback for the Browns in Jacoby Brissett against a new quarterback in Baker Mayfield for the Panthers. Both are projected to finish in the bottom five for fantasy points. When Mayfield was on the Browns, he was at his best when his passing attempts were limited and they leaned heavily on the run game.
We also have two teams that will look to rely heavily on their running backs. The Browns have Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and the Panthers have a healthy Christian McCaffrey. Both running backs are projected in the top five for fantasy. I can envision heavy running by the Browns, and heavy usage of CMC by the Panthers, which means fewer plays and a quick game.
NFL Week 1 Pick: Browns vs Panthers UNDER 41.5 (-110)
Ravens vs Jets Pick (Ravens -7, 44.5)
One of the situations I look for when betting totals is a heavy road favorite with a low total. I am usually going to look at the underdog’s team total and hopefully go UNDER. We have a situation with the Jets where it will either be Joe Flacco or Zack Wilson starting at quarterback and both are projected bottom-five at the position.
The Jets have a bottom-five team total at 18.5 and I like that number because it is sandwiched between 17 and 20 (17 is one of the most common team scores). I also look at the board and try to predict the lowest scoring team and team most likely to be shutout. In this case, I am on the Jets for both.
On the other side, we have the Ravens getting a ton of players back on defense especially in the secondary, which is No. 1 according to PFF. I think the Ravens get up early and force the Jets to throw — which will be bad news for New York. The Ravens defense is projected to allow the third-fewest yards on the week and the Jets are projected to allow the 27th most. That is one of the highest disparities on the board and the driving force on this play.
The only chance the Jets have of hitting this team total is if the game is close throughout and I don’t see how that will happen.
NFL Week 1 Pick: Jets UNDER 18.5 (-115)
Chiefs vs Cardinals Picks (Chiefs -4, 53.5)
This game is the highest total on the board and rightfully so as the Chiefs went OVER in 7 out of their last 8 games. The average score in the last 16 Chiefs road games has been 55 with the Chiefs averaging 30. While they did lose Tyreek Hill, I think the Chiefs offense will spread the ball around a ton making it hard to key on one player.
The Cardinals are without wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, but they did trade for Marquise Brown. With Kyler Murray healthy, the Cardinals typically play shootouts at home. The average score in the last 16 home games is 50 points. The Arizona defense ranks in the bottom five in defensive line, linebackers, and secondary, according to PFF.
Both quarterbacks are projected in the top-five for fantasy points and with the short-line/high-total, this game should be full of fireworks with the Chiefs putting up the most points Week 1.
NFL Week 1 Picks: Chiefs/Cardinals OVER 53.5 (-110) OR Chiefs OVER 28.5 (-110)
