One of the biggest things that you can do to be a successful sports bettor is gathering information. But the key is getting the right information, and then knowing what to do with it. Knowing who is betting on what, and understanding why, is a critical piece of handicapping. That’s especially true in the NFL. This is where knowing the percentage of handle (dollars) vs. bets (amount) comes into play.
The goal of this article is to report on what teams the betting public is most heavy on, and then deciding whether or not to follow the “herd” or “fade” them. It will focus on games that have at least 75% of handle or bets.
If you’re looking for more NFL picks this week, check out our best Week 1 NFL bets for EVERY GAME.
NFL Week 1 Betting Trends & Handles vs. Bet Percentage Plays
Ravens vs. Jets (Ravens -7, 44.5)
Ravens Handle 86%, Bets 86%
I gave out the under 18.5 points on the Jets in my totals article on Monday and since then the Jets announced that Joe Flacco is going to be their starting quarterback. Another narrative is the contract status of Lamar Jackson who was unable to agree to a contract before his deadline. The reason I bring this up is because I think Jackson is in for a MONSTER season — even MVP-like — as he is going to be betting on himself to get paid.
Everyone is on the Ravens in this game because of the QB situation, but also because of John Harbaugh’s past success in Week 1. The Ravens had a down year in 2021 and suffered a lot of injuries. They have a lot of motivation in this spot to really show they are one of the top teams in the AFC.
I’m going to side with the public on this game and agree that the Ravens should cover the -7 easily.
Colts vs. Texans (Colts -7, 45.5)
Colts Handle 71%, Bets 76%; Over 45.5 Handle 76%, Bets 51%
Some interesting notes on this game as the line peaked Colts -9, and has moved down since landing on the key number of 7; this includes a big line move from 8.5 just a few days ago.
I look at the total information here as key. We have a 76% handle vs. 51% bets spread which means that sharps are on this over. It makes sense as the Colts’ and Texans’ offenses look to be improved this year. Both totals were 45 and 45.5 last year, but still this year? Feels like this should be closer to 47-48.
People see the Colts and the upgrade at quarterback with Matt Ryan. They also look at last year’s results where the Colts smoked the Texans 31-3 and 31-0. Last year was a complete disaster for the Texans and a lot of times people think that everything remains the same.
But I think the public is grossly overrating the Colts here and having them as a divisional favorite in Week 1 is a trap. We typically see some crazy unexpected results Week 1 and this game is starting to scare me into the point where I can envision something crazy like an outright Texans win.
If I’m playing this game, I’m going with the sharp data and going OVER the 45.5 total.
Saints vs. Falcons (Saints -5.5, 42.5)
Saints 85% Handle, 76% Bets; Over 42.5 80% Handle, 65% Bets
Divisional home dogs are always in play Week 1 as they are 19-4 ATS since 2009. But the Saints are a team that look poised to bounce back this year and the Falcons with Marcus Mariota at quarterback look like a bottom 5 team. The line is in the dead zone at -5.5 which is intriguing. Do oddsmakers think the Falcons have a shot to win outright? There is a record number of home dogs this week (10) and mostly it is because there is just a huge disparity between most of the favorites and dogs.
I do like the 15% differential on handle vs. bets on the over 42.5 which feels very low as last year we saw 50 and 52 total points. I’m leaning with the sharp money here on the over.
Browns v. Panthers (EVEN, 42)
Panthers Handle 79%, Bets 77%
Having the Panthers as a home favorite has not been profitable in recent years as they are 3-10 SU and ATS in their last 13. The SU number is very scary and shows this team just does not have an home field advantage. Add in the forecast of rain all day Saturday and Sunday which means the field could be in poor condition. I gave out the under in this game Monday and I think it could end up moving even lower than 42 now. This just plays even more into the Browns hands and a heavy running game script.
There has been a lot of talk about the Baker Mayfield revenge game narrative, but I would suggest that the Browns are the ones with extra motivation to shut Mayfield up. Outside of the quarterback, the Browns outclass the Panthers on every unit both offense and defense. This line has moved from the Browns -4.5 to Panthers -2.5, and now back to EVEN money. I can see the Browns being -1 or even -2 by Sunday.
Time to FADE the public here and go Browns moneyline.
