Basketball fans still have a few more weeks to wait for the 2022-23 NBA season. But EuroBasket 2022 has served as a welcome respite for fans and bettors alike, especially with Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo all playing. With the group stage over, knockout play will begin on Saturday, September 10th. Here are our best bets and predictions for EuroBasket 2022’s Round of 16.
Three of the four factors (no ORB% b/c no easily scrubbed OPP stats) for #EuroBasket teams that qualified for the knockout stage!
Strong performers: ?? ?? ?? ??
Bad performers: ?? ?? pic.twitter.com/KRbESG1QTs— Isaiah Sirois (@is_sirois) September 9, 2022
EuroBasket 2022 Betting Odds & Picks: Round of 16
Turkey +9.5 | -115 (.8 Unit) at BetMGM
Turkey ML | +300 (.2 Unit) at BetMGM/FanDuel
Backing Turkey to get an upset win is my favorite bet for EuroBasket 2022’s Round of 16. Even if Turkey cannot cover, they should cover as near 10-point underdogs. The French men’s national team has seriously underperformed at EuroBasket following a silver-medal performance at the Tokyo Olympics. Two key absences account for this — wing Nicolas Batum and point guard Nando de Colo.
The French simply haven’t been efficient without them. France owns the fourth-worst effective field goal percentage (eFG%) among knockout-qualifying teams. At 53.1%, the French trail Turkey (53.7%) in the metric. Worse, the French have a turnover rate (TO%) of 18.1% — the worst among all knock0ut-qualifying teams by almost a full percentage point. In contrast, the Turks rank fifth-best in TO% at 11.8%.
France’s near-loss to Slovenia may have re-inspired confidence in the team after its earlier loss to Germany. But the problems that plagued France in that game are still present, and France benefited from Slovenia missing its third-best scorer, Mike Tobey. In contrast, the Turkish team has looked remarkably solid behind NBA players Alperen Sengun, Cedi Osman and Furkan Korkmaz and is trending up. This unit structure secures a half-unit return if Turkey covers but loses — and a solid 1.3-unit return if Turkey pulls off the upset.
Serbia -10.5 | -110 at DraftKings
I rarely see a double-digit spread and conclude the favorite is underpriced. But that’s what we have in Serbia’s matchup against Italy. The Serbians beat all of their group stage opponents by at least 11 points. Their average margin of victory in the group stage was a commanding 21 points per game — nearly double this spread.
Efficient play has led Serbia to this point. Led by Nikola Jokic, Serbia leads all knockout-qualifying teams in eFG% by a wide margin. With an eFG% of 61.8%, Serbia holds a 4.12% lead over the next-best national team, Czechia. In contrast, Italy ranks dead last in the metric at 51.9%. The Italians also rank third-worst in free-throw rate (FT%), finding their way to the line on only 20.7% of shot attempts.
Italy has made it this far by limiting turnovers — the team boasts the second-lowest TO% at EuroBasket. However, Italy lacks the offense necessary to cover. The books may not have adjusted their priors sufficiently after Italy lost Danilo Gallinari before the tournament. Backing Serbia to cover in the Round of 16 is a sharp bet based on an easy prediction for EuroBasket 2022.
Luka Doncic Over 7.5 Rebounds | -115 at BetMGM
Here’s something you don’t see every day: Slovenian center Mike Tobey is a game-time decision for the matchup against Belgium. Tobey is averaging 7.3 rebounds per game for Slovenia, trailing only Luka Doncic. Doncic himself is averaging 7.6 rebounds per game, which points to a slight edge against this number — but that would grow significantly should Tobey sit.
Doncic has played without Tobey a few times in this tournament. When Tobey first sprained his ankle during the tip-off against Germany, Doncic stayed in the game and pulled down two rebounds until Tobey returned. He finished with a game-high 10 boards. Tobey also sat out Slovenia’s game against France. Doncic pulled down seven boards in that contest, but that suggests his floor is just under this number. France also benefited from having big man Rudy Gobert to box out or take boards away from Doncic.
Belgium is neither a good shooting nor a good rebounding team. The Belgians own an eFG% of just 52.5%, third-worst among knockout-qualifying teams. They also pulled down only 34.4 rebounds per game in group play, fourth-worst among knockout-qualifying teams. Belgium’s leading rebounder, Ismael Bako, averaged 5 rebounds per game in group play and ranked 38th in the tournament. Doncic should easily soar past this number if Tobey sits, and he’ll have a good chance of beating it anyway if Tobey plays.
