Welcome to the twelfth edition of NFL Confidence Pool Picks. Each week will see a ranking of games based on attributed points determined by the number of games. With 16 games this week, games will be ranked from 16 points down to 1 point — the higher the number, the more confident the play.
Some early strategies in the NFL confidence pool picks center around shorting heavier favorites or bumping up tighter favorites. Most underdogs will be lower-confidence plays because leverage isn’t truly gained by picking upsets, but rather by the positioning of favorites.
All moneyline and NFL betting odds are pulled from OddsShopper.
Any ** denotes an upset.
Week 12 NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
- KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-14.5) VS LOS ANGELES RAMS
It’s hard to fade the Chiefs in any circumstance following how bad the Rams looked last week. This just isn’t the year for the now 3-7 Rams team that looks lightyears away from their Super Bowl victory. Andy Reid is just pumping out Ws along with his all-world QB in Patrick Mahomes, no matter who is out each week. This would be the biggest upset to date this year, don’t count on it.
- MIAMI DOLPHINS (-12) VS HOUSTON TEXANS
Another game where the underdog is just so outmatched in key spots makes it hard to fade anything with the Dolphins. Their QB has as much of an MVP bid as anyone in the NFL and they are lighting up defenses in the air like it’s practice. Houston can run the football and play conservative offense to keep the Dolphins off the field. The only problem is Miami needs 1-2 plays to score points. That type of big-play explosive offense doesn’t matchup well for Houston’s secondary.
- BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3.5) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
This line is incredibly short as there is still some concern about Lamar Jackson’s health, and how bad things looked in the wind last week against the Panthers. This is a 7-win team that continues to gut out victories against a Jags team that’s full of promise and close losses. Taking the Jags on the spread at home with a hook is one thing, but their QB makes too many mistakes, and making it near impossible to bet against the other signal caller. The Jags will be good enough in the next year to win a game like this, just not on Sunday.
- SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-9) VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Part of it was just how banged up and bad the Arizona Cardinals are, but it’s hard to ignore the arrival of the Niners. San Francisco is finally living up to expectations with a fresh run game to compliment a handful of deadly receiving options. Their defense should make life miserable for whoever the QB is for New Orleans, as the Saints escaped last week, only to find a team that’s more dysfunctional – this year. This is a healthy mismatch of talent in all three areas of the game, all three going the way of the Niners.
- LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-4) AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
Speaking of Arizona, they are trending towards being one of the worst teams in the NFL, and that doesn’t change with any return of Kyler Murray. They have no depth at the RB position and are dealing with a boatload of injuries following Monday Night’s loss. The Chargers just lost to one of the best teams in the NFL, and it may not be close in AFC (Sorry, Titans but just you wait…). The Chargers are getting healthier – slowly – and are a much better football team, with better coaching, and a significant advantage at the QB spot. This would be the second-biggest upset of the season, don’t bank on it.
- PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-6.5) VS GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Eagles stand to bounce back from their near loss to the Colts as they host Aaron Rodgers on Sunday Night Football. It’s a primetime event for Rodgers – maybe his last time to truly shine on the big state for the Packers – but the talent inside and around him is gone. Green Bay had every chance on Thursday to prove their win over Dallas was not a fluke; they failed. This is just who the Packers are, a bad team with an aging QB as he watches the game pass him by – only to see the guy on the other sideline take over the league. The Eagles offensive line is starting to get healthier, and they are not going to be gashed by the Packers run game – can’t run when you are down by 21 points.
- DALLAS COWBOYS (-9) VS NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants spent the first half of the season trying to prove their wins were not a product of luck – be it theirs or their opponents. After dropping two of three – with the one win coming against Houston – it’s becoming evident that New York’s luck is starting to expire. They face a totally revamped Dallas team, destroying Minnesota following a major disappointment in Green Bay. Dak Prescott is leading a balanced offense with two studs at the running back position. The Giants are a decent football team, but they are just facing a monster right now in Dallas.
- BUFFALO BILLS (-9.5) AT DETROIT LIONS
The Bills are back following a nice “get right” game against the Browns. Detroit comes off a huge momentum-building win, on the road against the Giants. Josh Allen is questionable once again heading into this game, but the real question is how effective Buffalo’s defense will be in slowing down **checks notes** Detroit’s offense. That’s what this game will ultimately come down to, which team can put up the most points in a shootout, and which QB will blink first. Despite the recent debacle by Allen, he’s nowhere near “Jared Goff Bad” when it comes to a career of mistakes.
- TENNESSEE TITANS** (+2.5) VS CINCINNATI BENGALS
Let’s bump up the Titans and gain some leverage to the field. Tennessee’s major crime this year is beating teams but not really beating teams. As absurd as that sounds, for some reason they are getting the college treatment, lacking style points, but they are one of the top teams in the NFL. They put up points and get to the QB. Crazy, right? A well-coached defense combined with a healthy running game and a QB that limits mistakes is winning games. The Bengals look like they are trying to figure out football every time Joe Burrow drops back, don’t let their record nor schedule fool you, this team is not that good.
- SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3.5) VS LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Pete Carroll has earned a benefit of the doubt in this game. He’s coached up everyone on his Seahawks team to a level that would be incomprehensible for Raiders coach Josh McDaniels. That’s because one is an all-time motivator and the other is a failure as a head coach. The latter was hidden last week as the Raiders found a coaching staff actually more inept in the Broncos. They won’t have those luxuries this week as the Seahawks are continuing to outplay their expectations – and talent level. Seattle should bounce back rather quickly from their neutral field loss to the Bucs in Germany. The Raiders should let down after last week, because their entire season is a letdown.
- WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (-4) VS ATLANTA FALCONS
The Washington Commanders made some key changes on defense weeks ago during the Bears game. Ever since they have been on a mission, covering spreads and winning games in the process. They limited offenses like Philadelphia and Minnesota in the process. This is a good football team right now. We think the same for the Falcons, mainly because of the crazy ATS run we saw at the start of the season. Is this the Atlanta team that beat the Seahawks and Niners or the disappointing squad that split with the lowly Panthers? There are few questions remaining with Washington, and that’s the difference this weekend.
- MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-2.5) VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS**
We move up the Patriots beating the Vikings this week to the 5th spot, mainly because the Vikings aren’t to be trusted. They host a Pats team that survived the elements more than anything, but once again their defense proves the difference. It travels and will be a major emphasis in bringing down Kirk Cousins – or at least putting pressure in his face. The Vikes might be on their last leg following that beatdown by Dallas. They don’t have the proven history to bounce back from these types of losses, and their talent alone won’t carry them against this type of defense.
- TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3.5) AT CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Bucs are back following a bye week and defeat of the Seahawks in Germany. The Browns are a tough out but may have finally been exposed as a bad team by the Bills. The problem is that Cleveland is truly only a bad team when facing some of the league’s best talent, taking on an underachieving sleepwalking Bucs team might be enough for the Browns to hang and ultimately win one. We side with the better QB – for now – despite neither team having any real coaching to back.
- DENVER BRONCOS (-2.5) AT CAROLINA PANTHERS**
The Panthers are doing something now that they refused to do under Matt Rhule – run the ball. It’s wild that losing their best player – who happened to be a running back – has opened the door for more running of the football. It’s not like the Panthers had Aaron Rodgers at QB to justify neglecting the run game. The Panthers are almost there. They are keeping things close by reducing the ask of their QB and putting that on their run game. They are certainly good enough and well-coached enough to take advantage of Denver. Russell Wilson is one of the worst QBs in the league right now, hard to bet him to do anything positive at this point.
2. NEW YORK JETS (-4.5) VS CHICAGO BEARS**
The Jets have a QB problem – mainly in that Zach Wilson may not be that good. They survived a close game against the Patriots only because the wind allowed it. Wilson had two balls bounce off the chest of Patriots defenders, and could have been picked a third time if not for a flag. Chicago has a little something in Justin Fields – at least more than whatever the Jets have in Wilson. Fields can be a positive difference maker on the field, so long as he’s taking on an equally talented or inferior team. Wilson isn’t making any true difference on the field – outside of not handing the ball over to the other team. We like Chicago to “upset” the Jets.
- INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2.5) VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS**
Jeff Saturday continues to upset the sports world despite nearly winning his second game in as many tries. Mike Tomlin is a Hall of Fame coach who should be able to spot plenty of holes in the Colts game plan. They just aren’t that great of a team in Indy and will continue to lose games with Matt Ryan. The Steelers are grooming their young QB with some young talent around him, but the big story is they have a healthy defense. The Colts lose again.
