This look at the best NFL prop bets for Week 15 will dial in on two intriguing matchups: Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr against the New England Patriots, and Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
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Best Week 15 NFL Player Props
New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders
The Patriots are coming off a stellar defensive performance at the Arizona Cardinals in a 27-13 win last week. They finished with six sacks, one interception, and one fumble recovery that was returned for a touchdown. The Patriots defense ranks top 10 in total yards (312.6) and points allowed (18.4) per game. The Raiders are hoping to forget last week, after losing to Baker Mayfield and the Los Angeles Rams on a late 98-yard drive. Tough the Las Vegas offense has looked great in recent weeks, Carr cannot stop throwing interceptions. Expect him to continue this streak in Week 15.
Carr enters Sunday with a 20:10 TD-to-INT ratio. He has thrown an interception in three straight games, including two games with multiple interceptions. Running back Josh Jacobs (quad/hand) is active for Sunday after going through limited practices all week. Even with Jacobs seeing an increased workload over the past three weeks (26+ carriers a game), Carr is still managing to find ways to turn it over through the air. Carr has only thrown one of his 10 interceptions at home, but that should not shy away from taking him to throw a pick today. He is 0-3 against New England with an interception in two of those three games.
The Patriots defense held the Cardinals to 210 passing yards and 323 total yards last week. The pass rush continues to excel, ranking third in the NFL in sacks with 45 on the season, behind only the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. The pass defense is especially a strength, ranking ninth, while the rush defense is 12th. New England’s defense is allowing an average of 18.4 points, fifth in the NFL. The Patriots defense has 14 interceptions on the season, third in the NFL. They will be without cornerback Jalen Mills (groin), but have eight players who have at least one interception.
The Patriots defense will be the key in this one. The Raiders usually rely on offense to win, but they will have a tough test at home Sunday. Carr has not been efficient, throwing four interceptions in his past three games, which is not ideal facing a Patriots defense that has proven to make quarterbacks pay for their mistakes. Have confidence in Carr to throw an interception Sunday.
Best NFL Player Prop: Derek Carr OVER 0.5 Interceptions
Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bengals look to extend their five-game winning streak in Burrow’s first battle against Tom Brady. Last week, the Bengals defeated the Browns 23-10, and the Buccaneers were demolished in a 35-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Brady was 34-of-55 through the air for 253 yards, one TD, and two INTs. This is a crucial week for Brady and the Buccaneers, who are in a dogfight for the top spot in the NFC South.
Bengals wide receivers Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd exited last week’s game with injuries. Fortunately for Cincinnati, each will be active Sunday, giving Burrow plenty of options through the air. Burrow has a 27:9 TD-to-INT ratio on the season. Since the bye in Week 10, Burrow has thrown for 1,150 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions, completing 63.6% of his passing attempts.
The Buccaneers defense is surrendering 125.4 rushing yards per game, but their pass defense has been the bright spot, allowing 195.3 passing yards per game, fifth fewest in the NFL. Injuries to NT Vita Vea and CB Jamel Dean sets back an already banged-up Tampa Bay defense. Bengals RB Joe Mixon should be able to have plenty of success on the ground after missing two weeks in concussion protocol before returning last week. He showed no signs of rust, averaging 6.9 yards per carry in his return. Tampa Bay safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (ankle) and Mike Edwards (hamstring) are questionable, and the Buccaneers have only seven interceptions on the season.
With the injury to Vea, look for the Bengals to run a bit more in this one. Even if Brady is able to bounce back after a miserable game against the 49ers, do not anticipate this game to be won by the Bucs defense. Burrow should continue to excel through the air, with wiide receiver Ja’marr Chase, Higgins and Boyd all available. Take Burrow to go Under his interception prop in his first game versus Brady.
Best NFL Player Prop: Joe Burrow UNDER 0.5 Interceptions
