One of the biggest things bettors can do to be a successful sports bettor is gathering information. But the key is getting the right information, and then knowing what to do with it. This is where knowing the percentage of handle (dollars) vs. bets (amount) comes into play.
The goal of this article is to report on what teams the betting public is most heavy on, and then deciding whether or not to follow the “herd” or “fade” them. It will focus on games that have at least 75% of handle or bets.
Week 2 NFL Picks: Best Bets for Game Total
Jets vs. Browns (Browns -6, 40.5)
The under on the Jets at 18.5 was the play last week, and it came in easily as they only put up 9 points against the Ravens at home. Now the Jets travel on the road to Cleveland, whose game last week was also cruising to the under midway through the third quarter before it ended with a total of 50 points.
The positive takeaway is that the Browns as expected and ran the ball down the Panthers’ throat for over 200 yards. The Browns defense completely shut down the Panthers in the first half, with drives of -1, -4, 3, 12, 3 and -1 net yards. The one exception was a 50-yard pass that resulted in a 75-yard drive and touchdown.
The Browns will continue the same gameplan this week, and the Jets are going to continue to struggle on offense with Joe Flacco. Last week, the Jets at 18.5 was a great number, but now this week it is 16.5, which is just under the key number of 17. The Jets first half total is 7.5, which will cash if they only get two field goals or one touchdown.
NFL Betting Pick: Jets UNDER 7.5 Points First Half or Jets UNDER 16.5 Points Total
Commanders vs. Lions (Lions -2, 48.5)
The steam is already out on this game total, as it opened 45.5, moved to 48.5 and looks to be climbing even more. A lot of people will say the juice is already squeezed out of the total and there is no value, especially since it has crossed the key number of 48. But this over is still in play, as it projects for 65 points.
The Lions put together four drives of 72 yards or more against the Eagles and scored 35 points. Meanwhile, the Commanders scored 28 points and Carson Wentz threw four touchdowns. They also had four drives of 71 yards or more.
Here’s a strong trend – 12 out of 16 Lions home games have totaled at least 50 points.
NFL Betting Pick: OVER 48.5 points
Cardinals vs. Raiders (Raiders -6, 51.5)
This is going to be a theme all year: Going over against this historically bad Arizona Cardinals defense. The Chiefs crushed their 28.5 team total last week, and it makes sense to run it back with the Raiders at home this week. The only drawback is, just like last week, the sharp steam has already hit this game, moving the Raiders from -3 to -6.
The Chiefs scored on 7 out of 10 drives, and six were at least 66 yards or more. Patrick Mahomes was 30-for-39 passing and had a 144 passer rating. Derek Carr threw for 295 yards against the Chargers, but the three interceptions and five sacks killed them. This Cardinals defense is incapable of doing that to any team, even with the Raiders bad offensive line.
Carr should be able to hit Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller all day long, especially in the first half. The first half is in play here because, if the Raiders get out to a big lead, they will pump the brakes and start to run.
NFL Betting Pick: Raiders OVER 29.5 or Raiders OVER 14.5 First Half
