Betting on the NFL early in the week oftentimes presents the best opportunities in value, especially when it comes to totals. Getting the best number available before the odds move is key to becoming a successful bettor.
Thankfully, in Week 3 of the NFL season, there is a full slate of games to look at in the NFL betting odds market.
Below are three of the best NFL bets on the board this week, with a focus on the total points. Check out all of the best NFL Week 1 picks, and be sure to use OddsShopper’s NFL line shopping tool when looking for the best value on all of your bets.
Week 3 NFL Picks: Best Bets for Game Total
Texans at Bears (Bears -3, 40.5)
The first totals play of the week is the Limburg Cheese game of the week, so hold your noses as you head to the betting window. This is a downright ugly game, and the only reason to watch is financial interest. But that being said, this is a great spot to get the Bears as an under play. One of the key numbers when betting team totals is 21, and the Bears’ line is just over it with a 21.5 team total.
Justin Fields through the first two games of 2022 has a total of 28 passing attempts for 191 yards. Granted, Week 1 was in a monsoon against the 49ers, but his struggles date back to last year. The Bears shed wide receiver Allen Robinson in the offseason and now have the worst set of receivers according to Pro Football Focus. The only chance the Bears have is running David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert, who represent 53% of their offensive yardage. Toss in the 48 yards rushing from Fields, and this is a team that just cannot move the ball in the air.
The Texans allowed 20 points to the Colts and 16 to the Broncos, which are better offenses than the Bears. This is a much better defense under head coach Lovie Smith. The Bears will struggle again to score and will come in under the total of 21.5; this one looks like a 20-13 type of game, with the Texans coming out on top.
NFL Betting Pick: Bears UNDER 21.5
Bills at Dolphins (Bills -4, 53.5)
OK, now is the Smoked Gouda cheese play of the week, with a huge AFC East matchup between the Bills and the Dolphins. The Bills come off another strong performance in prime time, with a 41-7 blowout of the Titans, and the Dolphins pulled off a miracle road win against the Ravens, 42-38.
The additions of Tyreek Hill and new head coach Mike McDaniel have opened up this Miami offense. This game is all about the quarterbacks Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa. Both are in the top five in yards passing and yards per attempt. Wide receivers Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Stefon Diggs are in the top seven for yards receiving. Neither team possesses much of a rushing attack, so the total passing attempts in this game will be off the charts. Throw in the heat in South Florida, and this game could really explode in the second half. The Bills are 13-5-1 going over the total in their last 19 road games.
This game has the makings of a classic shootout. the Dolphins side is a better play, but this article is totals only and the game will go way over 53.5 points.
NFL Betting Pick: Bills vs. Dolphins OVER 53.5
Lions at Vikings (Vikings -6, 52.5)
After being an over bet last week, the Lions over is again in play, this time against the Vikings. The Lions have gone way over their totals in the first two games, with combined scores of 73 and 63 points. Expect more of the same this week on the road at Minnesota. One of the things necessary for a game to go over 52.5 points is scoring on both sides, and that is the case here.
The Lions are fourth in total offensive yards and third in total yards rushing through the first two games. Both teams are in the bottom five in total yards allowed. The last time these two teams played, the Lions won 29-27 in Detroit.
The Lions have been a heavy over team at home, so there is some chance of a 27-20 game. But the Vikings are coming off a Monday night game in which they were blown out by the Eagles 24-7. The Vikings’ over trends at home are similar to the Lions’, as they have averaged 26 points in their last 16 home games and the over is 11-5-1.
The Vikings should bounce back at home and put up between 27 and 30 points, and the Lions offense will be able to do about the same, leading to a 30-27 type of score like their last meeting.
NFL Betting Pick: Lions/Vikings OVER 52.5
