One of the biggest parts of being a successful sports bettor is gathering information. But the key is getting the right information and then knowing what to do with it. Figuring out who is betting on what and understanding why is a critical piece of handicapping. That’s especially true in the NFL. This is where knowing the percentage of handle (dollars) compared to bets (amount) comes into play.
The goal of this article is to report on what teams the betting public is most heavily on and then to decide whether or not to follow the “herd” or “fade” them. It will focus on games that have at least 75% of handle or bets. This article’s process went 2-2 last week and is 8-3 on the season.
NFL Week 4 Betting Trends & Handles vs. Bet Percentage Plays
I said tread lightly last week and my gut was right as we went 2-2 despite a terrible call against the Eagles. Sometimes you get too cute and always fade the public. In some games you just have to recognize talent and go with it. I feel much more confident in the plays this week.
Commanders at Cowboys
Cowboys -3.0; Bets 77%, Handle 73%
I wrote about the Cowboys in the game against the Bengals and loved them as home dogs for a FADE THE PUBLIC play that cashed easily. The overreaction to the quarterback change was significant and it is still being felt here, because if Dak Prescott were starting this line would be Dallas -7 or higher.
The Commanders got outplayed in every aspect of the game last week at home against the Eagles and the Cowboys defense is primed for another strong game. Carson Wentz was sacked 9 times in that game while the Cowboys lead the league in sacks.
Dallas has a great recipe right now with a strong running game and defense to hammer the Commanders this week.
BEST BET: Cowboys -3.0 — FOLLOW THE PUBLIC
Cardinals at Panthers (Cardinals -1.0, 43.5)
Cardinals -1.0; Bets 82%, Handle 69%
Sometimes the first look at a matchup can bring confusion or frustration as these are two teams that are not playing up to expectations. We have a short line with a low total so on the surface it looks like a tough game to handicap. But as I looked into the game further, I came away with a theory and game script that I feel strongly about.
The Cardinals defense is a play against for me all year but you have to pick your spots. The first half data for the Cardinals on offense and defense are very strong. Arizona is 30th in 1st half time of possession and 29th in points per game at 4.3. Carolina ranks 8th in first half points per game allowed at 7.7.
Without DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green, the Cardinals offense is one dimensional and opposing defense are just bracketing Kyler Murray in the pocket so he can not run. Now we get word that Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore are not 100%, yet this line has moved towards the Cardinals. The public has still fallen in love with this team and I don’t know why.
Another factor for me is motivation and we have the Cardinals travelling east to play the Panthers albeit not the 1 pm eastern time slot. The Panthers got the monkey off their backs last week with a win against the Saints, and I think they smell blood in the water. I expect the Panthers to come out with a very strong game plan on offense in the first half and attack this weak Cardinals defense.
Best Bet: Panthers 1H ML -105, Cardinals 1H under 10.5 — FADE THE PUBLIC
Chiefs at Buccaneers (Bucs -1.0, 46)
Chiefs +1.0; 79% Bets, 62% Handle
I had this game circled at the beginning of the season and depending on how things went leading up to Week 4 is how I would lean. Well, the Bucs have had numerous injuries to the offensive line and wide receiver positions. The Chiefs have been relatively healthy, but fell into the dreaded “trap” game last week on the road against the Colts. The Chiefs were clearly looking ahead as they looked lifeless in the game and made numerous mistakes just giving the game away. I was on the UNDER in the game and it went about how I expected.
The Bucs lost in the last minute of the game at home to the Packers and if you watch the game, you can see how missing Mike Evans, Julio Jones, and Chris Godwin forced Tom Brady into dink and dunk short passes the whole game. They were going in for a game tying 2 point conversion when they got a terrible delay of game penalty which pushed them back 5 yards and cost them the game.
This game comes down to a couple things – Mike Evans coming back for Brady and motivation on who needs this game the most. Both teams are 2-1, but this is the 2nd straight home game for the Bucs. They are not going to lose again. My power ratings have the Bucs at -3.0 in this spot, so we get some line value. I am going on the premise that only Evans will play, but if by chance – Godwin, Jones, and/or Gage happen to see the field it is a bonus. There is a narrative about when Patrick Mahomes is a underdog and he is 6-0-1, but I just don’t see it this week.
Best Bet: Bucs -1.0 — FADE THE PUBLIC
Rams at 49ers (49ers -2.0, 42.5)
Rams +2.0; 78% Bets, 62% Handle; Under 42.5 79% Handle, 45% Bets
This line opened in May as Rams -1 and it has bounced around to as high as the 49ers -3.0 and settled in at -2.0. Anything less than a field goal in this game and I knew I was going to be on the 49ers. I have not been impressed with the Rams at all this year, and fading the Super Bowl champs is something you always want to do. Matthew Stafford still looks rusty and the Rams offensive line is significantly downgraded from a year ago. This 49ers defense is going to make life hell for Stafford.
We probably get this at under a field goal because the 49ers lost last week to the Broncos 11-10 in a very ugly game. This should be another very low scoring defensive game, but the 49ers will be able to force Stafford into some interceptions and win the field position battle.
BEST BET: 49ers -2.0 — FADE THE PUBLIC
