Betting on the NFL early in the week oftentimes presents the best opportunities to find value, especially when it comes to totals. Getting the best number available before the odds move is key to becoming a successful bettor. This article swept the board last week with a 3-0 record.
Thankfully, in Week 5 of the NFL season there is a full slate of games to look at in the NFL betting odds market.
Below are four of the best NFL bets on the board this week, with a focus on the total points. Check out all of the best NFL Week 1 picks, and be sure to use OddsShopper’s NFL line shopping tool when looking for the best value on all of your bets.
Week 5 NFL Picks: Best Bets for First Half Team and Game Team Totals
Eagles at Cardinals (Eagles -5.5, 48.5)
You might have noticed a pattern in last weeks totals plays where I shifted to a lot more first half plays and it really paid off. I’m leaning on more first half totals this week because 2nd halves have been so unpredictable,
The Eagles were one of my plays last week with a 13.5 first half over and they hit, scoring 20 points. I did get a little nervous when they didn’t score in the 1st quarter, but falling behind 14-0 just meant they had to push the ball down the field with urgency. The most efficient offense in the NFL put up 20 points in the 2nd quarter.
I’m going back to the well here with another over 13.5 first half play on the Eagles who travel on the road to Arizona and get one of the worst defenses in the league. Getting the Eagles under the key number of 14 is huge since the Cardinals have also allowed the most first half points, while scoring the least.
Oddsmakers caught on to this one as they juiced 13.5 over up to -140 now.
Best Bet: Eagles Over 13.5 First Half (-140)
49ers at Panthers (49ers -6, 39.5)
I wanted to go under first half on the Panthers in this game but oddsmakers caught on to this one as well, making the line Panthers 6.5. I was hoping to get that number around 7.5 or even 8.5. I like the value on the game total more at 16.5, but was looking for a 17. No books were offering it, but 18.5 was available at high juice. There has already been movement on this game with 15.5 becoming the more popular number. I think it is in play as low as 14.
The 49ers have the best first half defense in football at 2.3 points per game allowed and the Panthers have scored 7, 6, 6, and 3 points in the 1st half on offense as two of their scores were from the defense. The Panthers are a complete mess on offense and have no idea what they are doing. This game could get ugly with the 49ers just teeing off.
Best Bet: Panthers Under 16.5 (-120)
Bengals at Ravens (Ravens -3, 48.5)
We have seen the Ravens blow two huge leads in the second half two weeks in a row, but you know what? It doesn’t matter because we are betting first half team totals and the Ravens can put up points. The Ravens are 3rd in first half scoring at 18.0 points per game and the Bengals defense is 23rd at 14.8 points per game allowed.
The Ravens have hit this number in 3 out of 4 games and I expect the Bengals to move the ball on this porous Ravens defense which is make it a very high paced game favoring the over.
Best Bet: Ravens Over 13.5 First Half (+100)
Raiders at Chiefs (Chiefs -7, 51)
Team totals can become an Easter egg hunt because two games are just not created equal. For whatever reason, sometimes oddsmakers will skew lower on the first half and higher on the 2H and vice versa. It is our job to find the errors and soft lines. We get one here in that the Chiefs team total is around 29.5-30.5 but the first half total can be found at 14.5. It really should be 15 or 15.5 but they are not offering that number, nor are they offering a 13.5 anymore. I think people are catching on to the value and soft lines in the first half team totals so it will be interesting to see how it plays out moving forward.
The Chiefs rank #2 with 18.0 points per game in the first half while the Raiders allow 25th highest at 14.3. This is not rocket science folks, I am not doing anything super technical here. I am just isolating a team total in a more predictable fashion. I do the same thing in baseball where I bet a ton of team totals instead of game totals.
Best Bet: Chiefs Over 14.5 First Half (-110)
