Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles have taken the NFL by storm this season. At 9-1. the Eagles lead the NFC East and are on track to earn a bye week. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers haven’t had the same success. The Packers have stuck their star quarterback with a limited supporting cast, and he has been playing through a serious thumb injury. The Eagles are a full touchdown favorite in the NFL odds, and bettors looking for a positive return should tail these Packers-Eagles picks and predictions — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other smart bets.
NFL Odds: Packers-Eagles Odds
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Green Bay’s Defense Relying on the Blitz
The news out of Green Bay hasn’t been good. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers suffered an avulsion fracture of his thumb, which almost always requires surgery, in the loss to the New York Giants. However, Rodgers has done his best to play through the injury and still leads the NFL in on-target throw percentage (80.6%). The Packers rank a solid 14th in total defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), but they have just a 4-7 record.
Green Bay’s offense has led the way this year. The Packers rank ninth in offensive DVOA and 15th in yards per play (5.5). Matt LaFleur has called a balanced offense that ranks only 15th in passing play percentage (59%). That number has even dropped over their last three games (56%). Green Bay ranks a lowly 22nd in expected points added (EPA) per pass (0) but 10th in EPA per rush (-0.03).
The Packers will need to lean on Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon to dig out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves. Jones ranks second among all running backs in rushing defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) with 215. Dillon ranks 19th with 60. Green Bay’s offensive line ranks an impressive second in line yards and a solid 17th in run-block win rate.
Green Bay’s defense has held the team back this year. The unit ranks 20th in defensive DVOA and 18th in yards allowed per play (5.5). The Packers have imploded against the run — their defense ranks 29th in EPA per rush (0.02) and 21st in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.6). They have even allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game to running backs (119.9). They’ll remain without inside linebacker De’Vondre Campbell this week as well. Their pass defense has been a bit better — the defense ranks 14th in EPA per pas (0.05) and ninth in pressure percentage (23.6%), but their success has required an NFL-high blitz frequency (39.1%).
Finally, Philadelphia Can Stop the Run
Not much has gone wrong in Philadelphia this season. The Eagles may have choked a game away against the Washington Commanders, but they responded by reinforcing their run defense. General manager Howie Roseman brought in veteran defensive linemen Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh after the Eagles couldn’t stop Houston’s Dameon Pierce or Washington’s Brian Robinson without rookie Jordan Davis. The new-look defensive front just held Jonathan Taylor to only 84 yards on 22 carries last week.
Philadelphia’s offense has gotten almost everything it has wanted. The Eagles rank third in offensive DVOA and eighth in yards per play (5.7). Their rushing offense, led by running back Miles Sanders and quarterback Jalen Hurts, ranks second in EPA per play (0.05). Their passing offense ranks sixth (0.12) in the metric. The offense owes much of its success to strong play in the trenches — Philadelphia’s offensive line ranks fifth in run-block win rate and 10th in pass-block win rate.
The Eagles have been able to stop the pass all season, but their rushing defense remains unproven. The Eagles rank fourth in defensive DVOA and first in yards allowed per play (4.6), and their passing defense ranks second in EPA per play (-0.14). Their rushing defense ranks a suspect 28th (0.02) in the metric on the year, but it ranked sixth in Week 11 (-0.29) with the additions of Suh and Joseph.
Final Packers-Eagles Prediction & Pick
Philadelphia’s recent defensive improvements are a big deal. The Washington Commanders and Houston Texans could cover against them because their run-first offensive schemes allowed them to play sharp complementary football and run out the clock. The Colts took a similar approach against Philadelphia’s reinforced defensive line, but they needed a pair of Philadelphia fumbles to cover. Turnover regression should benefit the Eagles on Sunday night.
If Philadelphia’s defense can continue to play at a high level, the Packers won’t be able to move the football. Rodgers’ injury may prevent him from playing with the accuracy necessary to beat the Eagles’ secondary, and Suh and Joseph should keep Jones and Dillon from doing much on the ground.
Look for the Eagles to play complementary football to keep the ball away from Rodgers. The Eagles may rank a speedy 12th in seconds per play (28.4), but their run-heavy scheme has helped them rank eighth in average time of possession (30:40). Meanwhile, the Packers rank just 27th in seconds per play (30.5) and may not have the pace necessary to keep up with the Eagles.
The total for this game opened at 45. As of Sunday morning, 60% of the tickets had come in on the over, leading the books to move it up to 46. However, 57% of the money has come in on the under, and late action could lead this number to close a bit lower. Bettors should feel comfortable getting in at any number above 44.
Final Packers-Eagles Pick: Under 46 (-110 for 1.1 Units) at DraftKings
Packers-Eagles Prediction OddsShopper Model
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Betting the under on Rodgers’ total pass completions yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to DraftKings for the best price on the market!
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