Steelers-Bills Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet for Wild Card Monday (January 15)

Steelers-Bills Odds for Monday

Odds via BetMGM
Steelers: +400 | Bills: -550
Steelers +10: -115 | Bills -10: -105
Over 38.5: -110 | Under 38.5: -110
Time: Monday, Jan. 15 at 4:30 p.m. ET

Steelers-Bills Player Prop Pick

Mason Rudolph O/U 170.5 Passing Yards

Freezing conditions aren’t usually good for teams’ passing offenses. Buffalo’s defense hasn’t been friendly to quarterbacks, either — the Bills rank sixth in passing yards allowed per game (215.1) and seventh in expected points added (EPA) allowed per dropback.

Although the Bills have been inconsistent this year, I’m fading Rudolph regardless, largely because of his teammate, Kenny Pickett. A slow start could land Rudolph on the bench.

Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s Premium tools for this pick, which is also for Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Rudolph. Rudolph clocks in at odds of +140 at bet365 (and +130 at BetMGM, if you can’t access bet365 in your state) to not throw a touchdown pass. Rudolph went without a passing score in his start versus Seattle but threw at least one touchdown in his other two starts.

So how does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. Take 20% off your first month via code “ISIROIS”!

In this case, the true odds of this wager are +120, which means we’re getting 3.8 percentage points of edge at bet365 (and two percentage points at BetMGM). Lock this one in before the value gets bid off the board: DraftKings and FanDuel both have more efficient prices for this wager.

Dalton Kincaid clocks in at odds of +330 on the anytime touchdown scorer market at FanDuel. Those odds are inefficiently long. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists Kincaid at odds of +230. Most major public books have Kincaid trading at or below +300. Caesars even has this one at +185. That said, the edge we’re getting relative to the market is just one part of the reason why Kincaid is a sharp touchdown scorer pick today.

The Bills won’t have wide receiver Gabe Davis this week, which frees up plenty of red-zone receiving volume. Davis ranked second on the team in targets inside the 20 (11) and was tied for first inside the 10 (5). Kincaid ranked third inside the 20 (9) and fourth inside the 10. The return of Dawson Knox limits Kincaid’s upside, but just not enough to warrant the +330 at FanDuel.

The Steelers have surrendered seven receiving scores to tight ends this year, which ties them for the sixth most. Five of those scores came in Pittsburgh’s last six regular-season games as well. PlayerProfiler’s “best comparable player” to Kincaid, Isaiah Likely, just scored a touchdown versus this defense last week.