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Steelers-Raiders Pick & Prediction: Who Scores on Sunday Night? (Sept. 24)

The Pittsburgh Steelers will take on the Las Vegas Raiders in a brutal Sunday Night Football matchup, especially given what we saw from Pittsburgh on Monday. Still, the best way to deal with a bad matchup is to get some bets out, and that’s what I’m here to help you do. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Steelers-Raiders betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 3 bet!

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Steelers-Raiders Pick & Betting Prediction | Sunday Night Football

Sunday Night Football Betting Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Steelers: +116 | Raiders: -136
Steelers +2.5: -110 | Raiders -2.5: -110
Over 42.5: -115 | Under 42.5: -105

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Steelers-Raiders Pick & Prediction

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Las Vegas Raiders will square off in primetime on Sunday, and, well, I don’t expect as many points out of the Steelers as we saw on Monday Night Football. Pittsburgh hung 26 on Cleveland, but a whopping 14 of those points came from defensive touchdowns: a pick-six and a scoop-and-score. The Steelers are averaging the second-fewest yards (247) and the fewest offensive touchdowns (1) per game. The Raiders aren’t much better and are averaging the third-fewest yards (250.5) and the sixth-fewest offensive touchdowns (1.5).

The advanced stats bear out just how bad both of these offenses have looked, and they’re at least a little encouraging for Pittsburgh’s defense. Pittsburgh ranks last in expected points added (EPA) per play by a sizeable margin. Las Vegas ranks a solid 13th. The Steelers also rank 31st in success rate (35.7%) while the Raiders rank 23rd (41.1%). The Steelers rank 12th in EPA allowed per play and ninth in success rate allowed (40%). That’s far better than Vegas’ defense, which ranks 31st and 31st (54%), but as we’ve seen, it doesn’t take much to cause problems for Kenny Pickett.

Both offenses have also suffered injuries to key personnel, and their run blocking has been awful. The Steelers lost wide receiver Diontae Johnson to the injured reserve, so we already know he’ll be out for Sunday night’s game. Likewise, the Raiders are waiting on slot receiver Jakobi Meyers to clear the concussion protocol. Pittsburgh’s offensive line ranks an acceptable 13th in pass-block win rate (59%) but a putrid 32nd in run-block win rate (58%), while Vegas’ offensive line ranks second (74%) and 24th (68%), respectively. With key receivers absent and inefficient rushing attacks, these teams will often find themselves in bad down-and-distances.

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The total of 42.5-to-43 is just too high for what we’ve seen out of these teams this year. They combined for just 23 points on Christmas Eve last season and exactly 43 points in 2021, back when the Steelers still had Ben Roethlisberger under center. The Raiders have also played quite slowly and are averaging 30.5 seconds per play, not far off from the 29.9 they averaged last year. The Steelers have played faster than usual, averaging 24.8 seconds per play, but they’ll likely regress to the 29 they averaged last year against a bad opponent. Lock in the under 43.

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Steelers-Raiders NFL Week 3 Pick: Under 43 -112 at DraftKings

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