The Las Vegas Raiders will host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football this week. It’s not a great matchup, but the best thing to do when confronted with bad matchups is to put some money on the line. I’ve got a total bet for this one, but let’s also identify the best Steelers-Raiders player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Week 3’s edition of Sunday Night Football.
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Steelers-Raiders Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Sunday Night Football
Sunday Night Football Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Steelers: +120 | Raiders: -142
Steelers +2.5: -105 | Raiders -2.5: -115
Over 43: -110 | Under 43: -110
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Steelers-Raiders Player Prop
What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? We’ll find out on Sunday. The Pittsburgh Steelers lead the NFL in pressure percentage forced (38.6%). Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo leads all quarterbacks in pressure percentage faced (7.4%), largely due to an offensive line that ranks an impressive second in pass-block win rate (74%). But this Las Vegas line ranked 10th (62%) in the metric last year, which raises the question of whether they’re that much better or if they’ve gotten lucky.
I suspect the Raiders have gotten lucky. Garoppolo has faced a league-low nine blitzes, so his pass-blockers haven’t really had to do all that much. Meanwhile, the Steelers blitz at the seventh-highest clip (36.1%), and pass rusher T.J. Watt is often the one bringing down the quarterback. He has four sacks through two games with five quarterback knockdowns and 15 blitzes. Watt has at least a half-sack in six of his last seven regular-season appearances.
We can buy Watt to record over 0.25 sacks at the surprisingly long price of -125 (%). Again, he has accomplished this feat in six of his last seven games and in 19 of his last 27 — good for a hit rate of 70.4% dating back to 2021. That’s far better than where the implied odds currently sit. Don’t buy into the shocking overperformance we’ve seen from the Las Vegas offensive line and trust Watt to do what he does best.
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Steelers-Raiders Player Prop Pick: T.J. Watt Over 0.25 Sacks -125 at DraftKings
Steelers-Raiders Anytime Touchdown Scorer
We saw the Steelers score a pair of defensive touchdowns last week. Can they put one on the board again? They sit at a surprisingly long +650 (13.3%) at FanDuel to score a defensive touchdown, and, because I refuse to put any money on either of these offenses this Sunday, I’m buying that number and am staying away from the rest of the available touchdown markets because I am a huge fan of the under. FanDuel doesn’t pay these bets out for special teams, so we’ll need the Steel Curtain to bring this over the goal themselves.
The analysis here is pretty simple: the Raiders are a turnover-prone offense, and the Pittsburgh defense has recently excelled at turning takeaways into points. It makes sense — they’re generating a ton of pressure at the line of scrimmage, which forces quarterbacks to make mistakes. Those mistakes often lead to turnovers. The Steelers rank fourth in takeaways per game this year (2.5) and ranked 14th last year (1.4) despite missing Watt for much of the season.
Steelers-Raiders Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Steelers Defense +650 at FanDuel