The injury bug rears its ugly head in Week 10 of the NFL where an MVP candidate is potentially sidelined and drastically impacting the point spread involved by default. In other matchups, we’re witnessing line movement simply due to the disparity in talent pitted between those teams, where this week we finally get point spread shifts more noticeably budged throughout the week. Past the halfway mark of the regular season the betting public is becoming more steadfast in their wagers prior to the weekend action kicking in, hence a need for reaction on this injury news Friday.
Each week in this article we’ll identify the greatest point spread movements spanning Monday through Friday to factor in what caused them to occur and any edges that may be available before additional movement takes place heading into the weekend. Utilizing the FREE tools at OddsShopper, we’re able to recognize when the line movements transpired and solidify the best odds available to capitalize upon before the weekend movement is ushered in.
Let’s look a bit closer at the top point spread movements for NFL’s Week 10 to hone in on the best matchups to place our bets before the weekend wagers cascade toward further influence.
Week 10 NFL Betting Line Movement Today: Expert Betting Picks
Houston Texans–New York Giants
Game Time: Nov. 13, 1:00 p.m. ET, MetLife Stadium
Opening Line: NYG -6.5 (-115)
Current Line: NYG -4.5 (-105)
Daniel Jones and the New York Giants (6-2) come out of their bye week back at home to welcome the Houston Texans (1-6-1) to MetLife Stadium. The point spread opened with the Giants as -6.5 point favorites last Sunday where it moved up a half-point toward New York later that evening, dipped back down a half-point Monday and further dwindled down to the Giants -4 on Thursday before eking back up to -4.5 early today. With no major injuries to make a splash on the betting line and 55% of the public action on New York, the point spread movement likely came in part to the Giants’ noteworthy defeat at the hands of a surprising Seattle squad prior to their bye week.
The New York rushing attack spearheaded by Jones and Saquon Barkley has thrust the Giants among the league’s top four rushing teams with 161.5 rushing yards per game. Coming out of their bye week, the matchup on paper couldn’t be much more appealing as Houston currently sustains the worst rushing defense in the league, allowing 180.6 rushing yards per game. While Texans quarterback Davis Mills offers little edge to the scenario, a pathway to keeping this closer than some may anticipate could be riding on rookie stud Dameon Pierce, who’s averaging 84.8 rushing yards per game as the league’s fifth-ranked per the category. Pierce faces a Giants defense allowing 137.3 rushing yards per game and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game over their last three games. Brandin Cooks could also make his return to the Texans’ receiving corps following his absence against Tennessee last week.
Texans-Giants Lean
Though a slight majority has begun pouring funds toward the Giants’ betting lines, the gradual downslide in the featured point spread draws pause as it’s trickled in favor of Houston (particularly later in the week). Though Pierce has rapidly become a force to be reckoned with and the focal point of the Texans’ offense, the Giants have had time to prepare during their bye week following a humbling loss to Seattle. The rushing prowess combined between Jones and Barkley against an abysmal Texans’ run defense will in all likelihood be the galvanizing force in this matchup at home and provide New York an opportunity to control the clock while keeping Houston honest in defending against it. With both a reduced line and decreased juice, grab the Giants at -4.5 before the weekend wagers start flooding the market.
Minnesota Vikings–Buffalo Bills
Game Time: Nov. 13, 1:00 p.m. ET, Highmark Stadium
Opening Line: BUF -8.0 (-107)
Current Line: BUF -3.5 (+100)
A matchup of two juggernauts could be somewhat spoiled as the Minnesota Vikings (7-1) head to upstate New York to battle the Buffalo Bills (6-2) who may be without MVP candidate Josh Allen due to an elbow injury. The point spread opened with Buffalo as -8 favorites early last Sunday, budging down a half-point after the Bills’ loss to the Jets, then moving toward Minnesota a full point each day to where it’s now settled at Buffalo -3.5 with no house juice. The spread movement undoubtedly transpired following the early week news break regarding concerns about Allen’s UCL injury that’s feared to require season-ending Tommy John surgery.
Minnesota has been somewhat of a surprise this season as Kirk Cousins has re-endeared himself to fans in lieu of the start among the league’s top 10 passing offenses with 238.1 passing yards per game. Given the circumstances regarding Allen, who has been a non-participant in practice all week, it could very well be Case Keenum filling in under center in his place. Under Allen, the Bills have stuck claim among the league’s top three passing offenses with 292.1 passing yards and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game. The Bills are also ailing on defense as Tre’Davious White, Tremaine Edmunds and Jordan Poyer all remain questionable with injury news due later today, unveiling who may have rejoined practice to pave hope for suiting up Sunday.
Vikings-Bills Lean
Seeing as 66% of the public bets have come in on Minnesota throughout the week, the line movement makes plenty of sense with the writing on the wall appearing grim for Allen’s chances. Should Keenum draw the start, prepare for even further line movement to transpire between today and Sunday morning. Minnesota is 1-2-1 against the spread on the road this season yet this could be an easy cover for the Vikings with where the spread stands now.
While Buffalo could attempt to put Keenum in more of a game manager role, the Vikings’ rush defense ranks among the top nine teams with 111.3 rushing yards allowed per game and could force Keenum to throw often depending on the game script. Though Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis provide some relief to Keenum, we just witnessed the Jets shut down the Bills’ passing game with Allen under center (and duress) in Week 9. With all things considered, snagging the Vikings on the +3.5 at -110 odds is of utmost value, while the Minnesota moneyline at +160 is also very much in play here.
Arizona Cardinals–Los Angeles Rams
Game Time: Nov. 13, 4:25 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium
Opening Line: LAR -4.0 (-110)
Current Line: LAR -1.0 (-110)
We transition to a divisional matchup with the Arizona Cardinals (3-6) visiting the Los Angeles Rams (3-5), both mired in disappointment after high praises entering the season. The point spread opened with the Rams as -4 favorites at standard juice, quickly moving down a half-point toward Arizona less than two hours later and settling most of the week until Wednesday, when it drastically dropped to LA -1. Despite the public action being split between the teams at an even 50% throughout the week, the recent line movement has likely stemmed from Matthew Stafford being a non-participant in practice all week in concussion protocol.
The Cardinals and Rams have each lost their past two games along with four of each of their past five matchups respectively. Cooper Kupp has been outstanding in spite of the Rams’ offensive woes, averaging 101.6 receiving yards per game as the league’s fourth-highest pass catcher per the metric. Yet it could be John Wolford handling duties for Los Angeles under center, who could be forced to throw more given the substantially lacking Rams rushing attack ranking second-to-last in the league with 68.4 rushing yards per game. Wolford will likely be carried by the talents of Kupp in the passing game, while an Arizona defense allowing 253.4 passing yards per game (25th in NFL) could help soften the blow as well. Kyler Murray is dealing with a hamstring injury though has been limited in practice all week with no indication of missing Sunday. Murray leads an Arizona passing attack earning 220.7 passing yards per game (17th in NFL) and struggling to find consistency to this point.
Cardinals-Rams Lean
While the public action remains even-keeled thus far, it’s simply a matter of time until that shifts with injury confirmations established later today to reveal Stafford’s potential status on Sunday. Given how fast we saw the line get dropped regardless of the split bets coming in on both sides, this insinuates trouble for Stafford as he remains in concussion protocol. As if this Rams offense couldn’t stagnate any further, the pending likelihood of Wolford assuming quarterback duties certainly couldn’t help matters much while Kupp can only be asked to do so much.
Though Arizona’s offense has often been unappealing much of the season, the Cardinals have demonstrated signs of life at times as they displayed late in Week 9 in a near comeback against Seattle (despite the defense coughing up their chances in the fourth quarter). Take advantage of the Cardinals getting points by teasing it up as many as three points to +4, considering this leaky Arizona defense potentially making this closer than it should be. If Stafford is certain to be absent, the Cardinals’ moneyline is on the table at +106 also.
