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2023 Players Championship Longshot Bets: Brian Harman Bounces Back

The best players on the planet have convened for one of the most coveted trophies in all of golf – welcome to the TPC at Sawgrass. The Florida swing continues with one of the most daunting holes on one of the more challenging courses across the Tour. But winning the 2023 Players Championship is far more than just staying dry on 17, it’s about sharp approach shots and working undulated greens. Shot shaping off the tee is far more valuable than raw distance, which helps narrow down some longer shot candidates. The value is shot for guys like Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy, and the mid-range leaves much to be desired. This is a fantastic tournament to attack from longer range, with some great value on the board. Let’s look at a couple of the 2023 Players Championship longshot golf bets who can surprise the field.

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2023 Players Championship Longshot Golf Bets

Outright Winner Longshot Bet

There aren’t a lot of correlations between success in Swing Season versus once bigger names start showing up for tournaments, but one thing that can carry over is overall consistency. Watching someone like Brian Harman have such a command on the game just two months ago, only to now fall apart is a tough scene. He was a flat out disaster every way you slice it last week at the API. He lost strokes everywhere and missed the cut for the third time in his last four events. But we’ve seen this before, just two years ago when Harman had another awful showing at the API only to finish top 8 in 2019. He followed up three top 40s with a top 3 at the TPC just two years ago. Point is we’ve all seen Harman struggle leading up to this event but find something in his game. Based on the past few weeks, that “something” is going to have to be strokes gained ARG and APP. Harman won’t make it to Friday if he can’t improve, but doing that in a short period of time isn’t new to him either.

Harman isn’t going to punish the ball off the tee and is losing strokes with driving distance, but he’s made that up – especially earlier in the year – around the green. That’s going to be the big push here for a guy that can’t afford many mistakes with a wedge or flat stick. Rolling the ball will be big for everyone at this event but not having the longest distance isn’t going to punish anyone. The last thing to look at is Par 5 scoring. Pretty much every Par 5 can be had in two strokes, setting up plenty of scoring chances. Harman ranks well here, as he does in missing the fairway but still saving par. Brian Harman doesn’t get two top 10s over the past five years without taking on the challenge of a tougher field. The level of competition won’t be the issue, it’s basically forgetting everything he did last week at Bay Hill.

Best 2023 Players Championship Longshot Golf Bet: (Brian Harman +10000, PointsBet)

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Honorable Mention: Martin Laird (+40000, DraftKings)

It’s not often we get to throw out a 400-1 longshot in this column – we try to keep some sense of realism as difficult as that may seem. We covered him on this week’s Putting for Dough only at the back end, but it’s worth noting the same thing keeping Martin Laird from winning, could actually work in his favor if he just makes some putts. That’s it. He’s not going to sink seven birdies in a row, so any implosion is going to be extremely tough to recover. Laird missed three straight cuts before sneaking in a top 40 last week at the API. It’s worth noting because he still lost minor strokes on the green, but significantly improved his SG: APP – something that can save his lack of streak putting this week. Both are great ladder candidates and I’ll take a shot at Harman in any favorable 2 and 3-ball, but don’t be surprised if Martin Laird is hanging around in the 30s come Sunday.

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