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2023 Valspar Championship Sleepers & Longshots: Target Matthew NeSmith at Copperhead

As the Florida swing winds down, plenty of noticeable names are on hand at this week’s 2023 Valspar Championship. Much like previous legs of the Florida trip, golfers will deal with Bermuda grass, rounds impacted by weather and a healthy emphasis on shaping shots — especially off the tee.

There is course history and recent play to factor, but the big source of focus for most bettors is Sam Burns. Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth also headline the event that has a weaker mid-range to attack. Between the lack of overall top golfers and thinner middle, there are plenty of ways to approach longer shots.

Let’s look at two Valspar Championship longshot golf bets.

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2023 Valspar Championship Longshot Golf Bets

Outright Winner Longshot Bet

The two ways to look at betting longshots this week are not too far apart; they just focus on two separate areas of the Copperhead Course. Looking at course history is much more valuable at a course like this, forcing most golfers into longer layups off tee shots. The course is designed to put pressure on shot shaping off the tee and strong approach shots. It is even more important when identifying a golfer who is struggling coming into this event yet has history of being able to shake that off and still perform. Matthew NeSmith is one of a small handful of golfers in this week’s field with multiple top-20s over the last five years, including a second last year. Much like last season, NeSmith was atrocious at TPC Sawgrass just one week prior, missing the cut as he did in 2022. He lost strokes on the green, around the green and basically everywhere else.

The difference is what happened the two weeks prior at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. NeSmith was able to hone his short game and gain strokes on approach shots and around the green. He finished 39th but doesn’t have the proficient course history at Bay Hill like he does at Copperhead. NeSmith enters this week in similar fashion as last year where he nearly won the Valspar. The last thing to consider is that NeSmith is currently in the top 10 of this field in total strokes gained in the history of this event. Small sample size or not, he likes this course.

Best 2023 Valspar Championship Longshot Golf Bet: (Matthew NeSmith +13000, DraftKings)

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Honorable Mention: Kyle Westmoreland (+50000, DraftKings)

This week’s Putting for Dough had a picture of Kyle Westmoreland in the background, and likely very few people watching — including Ben Rasa — could identify him until his name was mentioned. The second way to approach longshots this week is to focus on one area of scoring that can help separate a golfer from the field. Conventional thinking would target par-3 scorers, as the Copperhead Course has a fifth par 3, along with the four par 5’s. But the latter might be an interesting way to focus on an area of scoring while countering a popular approach. Westmoreland is in the top 10 in this current field in par-5 scoring despite some other glaring issues with his game. Anyone sitting at 400-1 is there because there are way more reasons why he can’t win versus why he will, but an eagle or two in each round is crazy enough to get this done. Laddering guys like Westmoreland and NeSmith top-40 and top-20 are the best ways to bet this week.

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